America, take note.
Britain’s Gorton and Denton by-election on Feb. 26 was more than just a local upset. It gave a glimpse into demographic changes that could shape U.S. politics.
The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer won with 41% and 14,980 votes, turning this Labour stronghold into the Greens’ first northern seat. Reform UK came second with 29% of the vote, and Labour finished third with 25%.
Turnout was low at 48%.
The main story: Muslim bloc power flipped a seat, and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage’s strategy did not work.
The seat’s divided nature tells the story. Manchester wards like Burnage, Gorton & Abbey Hey, Levenshulme, and Longsight are changing fast: 40% Muslim, 62% U.K.-born, and 30% are graduates or students.
In Longsight, 60% are Muslim and 52% U.K.-born, making it a diverse, urban area where Gaza is a common topic. The Greens succeeded by using multilingual flyers, focusing on Palestine, and promoting anti-Islamophobia messages.
Instead of attacking others, they built coalitions. That bloc, along with tactical left-wing voters, overshadowed everything else.
Tameside wards, including Denton North East, South, and West, feel very different: less than 3% Muslim, 86% U.K.-born, and over 80% white British. These are working-class areas with few graduates and strong local roots. Reform UK led here, getting over 40% in some places by appealing to “keep Britain British” sentiment. Still, Manchester’s voters decided the outcome.
This is a story of two different visions, almost like a modern Dickens novel.
Manchester is moving away from traditional English and British identity, with lower native birth rates, more multiculturalism, less connection to Christianity and old values, and a shift toward new cultural expressions. Tameside, on the other hand, is more cautious about fast cultural change, holding on to traditions and trying to keep established cultural identities. --->READ MORE HERE
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| Peter Nicholls/Getty Image |
The Prime Minister is facing an existential threat from the Greens for support from Britain’s fast-growing minority
As a regional war rages on across the Middle East, following the US-Israel attacks on Iran, the “special” transatlantic relationship is under the most extraordinary strain. It is in this context that President Donald Trump has lashed out and suggested that Sir Keir Starmer is reluctant to provide support because he is fearful of a British Muslim backlash at the ballot box. He is right.
The reality, though, is that British Muslims have been abandoning Labour in their droves for some time. While domestic factors have played a part in this – such as a lack of economic opportunities, a shortage of decent affordable housing, and underperforming public services in traditionally Labour-controlled areas – Israel-Gaza was most certainly a defining moment and has accelerated this process.
Indeed, the concept of the Ummah – a global Islamic community which transcends national, ethno-racial, and geographical boundaries – means that foreign-policy considerations have an influential role in shaping British Muslim voting. The 2003 US-UK invasion of Iraq, for example, resulted in a notable number of British Muslim voters shifting their support to the Liberal Democrats due to the party’s robust opposition to the war.
While the majority of British Muslims are Sunni, and the regime in the Islamic Republic of Iran is a Shi’ite military-theocratic dictatorship, there is the possibility that any denominational rivalries will be trumped by opposition to what British Muslims perceive as aggressive US-Israeli militarism against a Muslim country.
Indeed, a report back in 2020 found that the Sunni-dominant British Muslim population had more favourable views of Iran than both the United States and Israel. Even if British Sunni Muslims may not be hugely sympathetic to the regime in Iran per se, it is certainly likely that many will be concerned with Trump joining forces with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to bring about regime change through Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion.
The recent by-election in Gorton and Denton, where British Muslim voters flexed their political muscle to hand the Green Party a historic victory – both punishing Labour and blocking Reform UK in the process – is clearly a sign of things to come for Starmer. --->READ MORE HERE
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