Christopher Sadowski |
America is outgrowing the Democratic Party.
That’s not a partisan claim; it’s demographic reality.
Blue states are shedding population and will have less representation in Congress and fewer votes in the Electoral College after the next Census.
Two nonpartisan nonprofits, the Brennan Center for Justice and the American Redistricting Project, crunched the numbers last year and came to conclusions that ought to shock Democrats into changing the way they govern places like California and New York.
States that voted for Kamala Harris this year are set to lose 12 seats in the House of Representatives, and an equal number of presidential electors, after 2030, according to the two groups’ extrapolations from Census Bureau data.
California is on track to lose four congressmen and electoral votes.
New York will lose three, Illinois two, while Oregon, Minnesota and Rhode Island are each going to be down one.
Solidly Republican states will get most of the gains, with Texas picking up four congressional seats and electoral votes, Florida acquiring three, and Idaho, Utah and Tennessee each adding one.
This year’s battleground states — all of which Donald Trump won — on balance come out slightly ahead of where they are now in the post-2030 projections: Arizona and North Carolina will be up one congressman and electoral vote, and Pennsylvania down one.
In an era when control of Congress depends on razor-thin and sometimes single-digit margins, the net loss of 12 seats from reliably Democratic states, and Republican states’ gains, will give the GOP an edge in the House, even if redistricting removes some red congressional seats in blue states and adds some blue seats in red states.
At the presidential level, the effect is like flipping a midsize deep-blue state to the GOP: The 12 Electoral College votes Democratic states are losing equal the Electoral College representation of Washington state today.
These are much more dramatic shifts than the 2020 Census brought about; its net result was only a slight gain for Republican states.
Why does 2030 look so much worse for Democrats? --->READ MORE HERENew York, other blue states losing out to ‘vibrant’ lower-cost regions as migration trend continues, data shows:
And the winner of the election is…the Sun Belt.
Americans are increasingly voting to fly south — and not just for the winter, either, according to new data obtained from the Census Bureau.
What’s become a multi-year trend is here to stay, experts warn.
Famously high-tax states like New York hemorrhaged population once again in 2023 — with Texas, Florida and North Carolina the three top states picking up the slack, absorbing hundreds of thousands of domestic migrants, according to the Daily Mail, which analyzed the report.
“I do not see a reversal: there will be no mass reverse migration back to high-tax states,” Ana Bozovic of Miami Analytics told the outlet — calling Florida one of the country’s “21st Century epicenters.”
“Entrepreneurship and creation flow towards the path of least resistance,” Bozovic opined.
It’s all about economics — and policy too, said Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute.
Perry cited “higher tax burdens and unfriendly business climates” as a reason why blue states like New York are losing people.
He called red states like Florida “more economically vibrant, dynamic and business friendly.” --->READ MORE HERE
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