Male voters were alienated by the "Joy" convention.
The “joy” is fading in the Kamala campaign as the latest polls show that the gap is closing.
And Kamala’s biggest problem is the men. White men. Black men. Young men.
Gen Z has the largest gender gap of any age group with young men supporting Trump by margins similar to those of older men. Black men and Hispanic men have been the hardest minority groups to persuade into the Kamala camp. A New York Times article last month blamed lagging black male support for Kamala on the ‘misogynoir’ that black men were suffering from.
Why is Kamala doing so poorly among men? One hint comes from polling numbers showing that white men went from supporting Trump by 13 points before the DNC convention to 21 points afterward. “Joy”, “brat summer” and all the efforts to brand a presidential campaign like the Barbie movie backfired making Kamala into ‘Barbie’ and Trump into ‘Oppenheimer’.
It’s not just the vibe, climaxing in Oprah’s convention appearance, that’s turning off men, the vibe is a symptom of the real problem not only with the campaign, but the candidate.
Kamala is a lightweight politician running on feelings at a time when men need something more solid. The “joy” theme told votes to turn off their brains, join the party and stop worrying. TikTok dances make a certain kind of voter gush while completely alienating another kind of voter.
Having “brat summer” inflicted on you when you’re cutting back on groceries is salt in the wound. A trivial campaign is insulting to those who are suffering and falling behind on bills.
But TikTok dances are the whole reason why Kamala is here.
Swapping out Biden for Kamala wasn’t about shifting the issues, but the personalities. Despite her disavowals of most of her past views, like banning cars, health insurance and plastic straws, and the random adoption of some Trump economic proposals, the Democrat presidential ticket is still fundamentally the same on the issues as it was in May 2024. All that’s new is the vibe.
In polls, men are statistically more likely to vote on issues, and women on personal characteristics. The Kamala coup offers new personal characters, but not issues.
The DNC had no new platform. Its platform was considered so irrelevant that no one got around to editing it to remove mentions of Biden’s second term. The Kamala campaign only added an ‘issues’ section to its website days before the upcoming presidential debate. The message is that issues don’t matter, what does matter is that Kamala is like the best friend you never had.
And Trump is a mean old man.
Kamala is hardly the first politician to run on personality, not issues, but in the middle of an economic crisis, a crime crisis, and record low levels of public insecurity about the future, her glib positivity and shallow narcissism have fired up upscale liberal women while turning off men: especially working class men of all races concerned about being able to earn a living. --->READ MORE HERE
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| Bill Pugliano/Getty |
Democrats are fearing a “Trump surge” with male voters, based on polls historically not accurately reflecting support for former President Donald Trump, according to a report.
“Trump is winning men who have not [previously] voted,” Celinda Lake, one of two leading pollsters for President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign told the Hill. “Most pollsters are adjusting. Our firm looks at two turnout estimates now. One the average and one looking at [a] Trump surge.”
She said that with polls showing battleground states balanced on a knife-edge, “I think we still have to worry about a Trump surge.”
If that happens, Harris does not have leeway, according to the Hill, since its polling averages with Decision Desk HQ show her leading nationally only by 3.4 points and by less than a percentage point in two of three vital “blue wall” states, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Harris leads by three points in Wisconsin.
Feeding this fear is that Trump has “consistently outperformed” his poll numbers in the past.
In the past, polls had accurately predicted support for the Democrat candidate, but not support for Trump, the Hill said.
For example, RealClearPolitics (RCP)’s final polling average before the 2016 Election Day underestimated Trump’s vote share by almost 7 points. RCP’s average projected Trump receiving 40.3 percent of the vote, but he beat Hillary Clinton with 47.2 percent of the vote.
Possible reasons were that pollsters’ models had underestimated rural and exurban turnout for Trump, or that Trump supporters were more reluctant to respond to surveys, or that some poll respondents lied about who they were supporting. --->READ MORE HERE
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