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| AP Photo/Alex Brandon |
The probability former President Donald Trump will defeat Vice President Kamala Harris soared to a 10-point spread, a J.L. Partners election model revealed Thursday.
The forecast indicates Harris’s so-called honeymoon since joining the 2024 White House race in July appears over as the model found Trump’s probability increased four points since Monday and nine points since the debate.
The model simulated the course of the election around 8,000 times and created a probability of each candidate winning a state and then the probability the candidates win the Electoral College.
The Daily Mail’s Rob Crilly reported on the finding:
But state-by-state numbers all show the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting towards Trump, giving him the overall advantage when it comes to winning the White House.
It gives him a 55.2 percent chance of victory. Harris is on 44.6 percent, with a very small chance of a tie.
The best way to understand what it all means is to imagine running the model multiple times with all the different permutations and combinations for all the different states. When all of those are run, Trump wins on average 55.2 percent of the time.
Data analyst at J.L. Partners, Callum Hunter, believes Trump could open an even wider lead in the coming weeks.
“Things are continuing to move against Harris,” Hunter said. “While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.” --->READ MORE HERE
Trump is given a 55.2 percent chance of winning through the electoral college, with Harris being given a 44.6 percent chance in the JL Partners/Daily Mail election model.
The latest update to the JL Partners/Daily Mail election model has shown that in recent weeks, Donald Trump has gained a 10-point lead over Democrat challenger Kamala Harris in the chances of winning the election come November.
The model calculates its decision based on the latest polling data as well as decades of election results and indicators. The latest update showed that Kamala Harris has the best chance of winning the popular vote, with 50.8 percent of the vote currently and a projected 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in the election.
Trump, however, is given a 55.2 percent chance of winning through the electoral college, with Harris being given a 44.6 percent chance. The model found a slim chance of a tie between the two candidates. Trump’s current standing is an increase of four points since Monday and nine points since the low he saw post-debate.
"Things are continuing to move against Harris," Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said. "While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September."
"If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks," he added. "September seems to have been Harris' high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end." --->READ MORE HERE
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