New polling of a trio of Southern battleground states shows the Kamala Harris honeymoon has ended in some of the few truly competitive states up for grabs this November.
Donald Trump is sweeping Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, according to New York Times/Siena College polling conducted Sept. 1 to 21, reversing Harris’ leads in two of the states along the way.
If Trump wins these states as this polling suggests, he’d be on a path to 262 electoral votes, meaning he’d only have to take one of the blue-wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin) to win the White House.
Among 713 likely Arizona voters, the former president scored his most stunning reversal in any of the three states in these data, taking what was a 5-point Harris lead in August and turning it into a 5-point lead of his own, 50% to 45%.
Voters age 45 and up are bought in. Trump has 58% support among those between 45 and 64 years of age and 53% support among senior citizens.
He also dominates among white people who haven’t gone to college, with 63% support in that group. But his biggest trove of support anywhere in Arizona is 74% in the western part of the state.
As other polls have shown, Trump’s strength doesn’t appear to be sufficient to power Kari Lake to the Senate. She trails Democrat Ruben Gallego 49% to 43%. Gallego leads with registered independents, 53% to 36%. --->READ MORE HERE
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| Anna Moneymaker–Getty Images |
New polls published Monday by the New York Times and Siena College show Donald Trump has gained a lead over Kamala Harris in Arizona and remains ahead in Georgia and North Carolina, three crucial battleground states that could determine the outcome of the election.
The Times/Siena polls, which surveyed 2,077 likely voters in the Sun Belt states, were conducted from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 and are the first since the presidential debate on Sept. 10. Times/Siena is ranked as the most reputable poll by FiveThirtyEight.
Below is how Trump and Harris are faring in the three key states.
Arizona
The poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 45% among likely voters, which is outside the survey’s margin of error of 4.4 percentage points for the state. The results show a big shift from August to September, when Harris led by five percentage points in the August Times/Siena poll, which was outside the margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
Arizona’s race was among the tightest state contests of the 2020 presidential election, with President Joe Biden beating Trump there by less than 10,500 votes.
Georgia
The poll shows Trump leading Harris 49% to 45% among likely voters, which is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error for the state. Trump has consistently led Harris in Georgia in several high quality polls, including in a poll conducted by the University of Georgia last week, which showed him ahead by three percentage points, though that was just within the poll’s margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
In 2020, Biden narrowly beat Trump in Georgia by a margin of 0.23% and 11,779 votes. --->READ MORE HERE
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