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| AFP via Getty Images |
If you think the war in Ukraine has turned a corner thanks to the $60-million supplemental passed last month, think again.
True, some US-provided weapons have started arriving on the frontlines, but Russians continue to enjoy an “absolute advantage” in their firepower, as President Zelensky’s advisor Mikhaylo Podolyak said this week.
Even under the most optimistic of scenarios, the current levels of international assistance are not enough to allow Ukraine to launch major offensive operations.
At best, the hope is that Ukraine manages to stabilize the existing lines and that it continues to degrade Russian logistics and supply lines with high-precision, long-range strikes — including against targets inside of Russia.
To achieve the former goal, Ukrainians will need to match or exceed Russian firepower on the frontlines and secure their skies.
For the latter, they need far more high-precision, long-range capabilities — and Biden’s permission to use them.
On both of those fronts, the United States and our allies are doing a miserable job.
Ukraine currently operates three Patriot systems — one of them protecting Kyiv, while large cities such as Odesa and Kharkiv continue to be pummeled.
According to Zelensky, the country would need 25 of them (each with 8 batteries) to bring Russian strikes to a halt.
Ukrainians also continue to be plagued by a shortage of 155-milimeter shells, which neither the United States nor Europe produce at a sufficient scale.
That has prompted the Czech leadership to build a coalition of countries that are sourcing such shells for Ukraine from the stockpiles of countries across Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Alas, the Russians are doing the same — and they are sometimes able to pony up the cash faster than European governments whose agility is constrained by the need for democratic accountability and transparency.
Even if we assume that both challenges are quickly addressed, Ukraine cannot win the war without inflicting decisive blows to Russia’s war machine.
Ukrainians have already had great successes with their use of HIMARS and the UK- and French-provided Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles.
Russia’s Black Sea fleet is in hiding, the use of Crimea as a launchpad for new attacks has become problematic, and Ukraine has already targeted Russia’s oil refining capacity.
The Biden administration has long sought to dissuade Ukraine from striking inside Russia, reflecting both its fears over escalation and a quintessentially election-year concern over high oil and gas prices.
The partial permission it gave this week to strike targets in Russia in the defense of Kharkiv goes in the right direction but is inadequate. --->READ MORE HERE
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| REUTERS |
Months after most other countries removed any restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine, the Biden administration finally just came to a new policy on the matter, per news reports.
But the White House’s decision — made only after an excruciating delay — still falls well short of what needs to happen for Ukraine to turn the tide of this war.
This war is now 10 years old; this move should have been made years ago.
We would never have asked a US or NATO combat mission to fight a war so severely limited by US and Western policy.
Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, is located less than 19 miles from the Russian border and has faced near-disaster for weeks on end.
The Russian military has taken solace in the knowledge that it can continue to prosecute the war in its sanctuary just across the border, with little fear of retaliation.
Over the past six weeks, Russia has incrementally taken about 60 miles of territory in this northeast corner of Ukraine.
As Russia continued to bomb the most obvious of civilian targets, the call for permitting Ukraine to use US-provided longer-range weapons to hit the Russians in the sanctuary provided by US policy has grown to a crescendo.
Perhaps motivated to finally move now, lest this become a focus of the rapidly approaching NATO summit in Washington, President Biden has selected the most limited of options available.
Arguably, this one will potentially be the most dangerous for Ukrainian forces.
The list of prohibitions that comes with this decision is extensive.
In seeking to “not provoke” Russia, the Biden administration has limited this new authority to our shortest-range munitions, completely forbidding longer-range ATACMs use, presumably even the 150km (90-mile) range systems. --->READ MORE HEREFollow links below to +++++relevant+++++ and related stories:
+++++Russia-Ukraine News LATEST UPDATES: (REUTERS) (AP) (NY POST) and (WSJ)+++++
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+++++‘We took out so many of them:’ Ukraine stabilizes Kharkiv front after brutal Russian offensive+++++
+++++Ukraine controls 70% of Vovchansk City, street fighting continues, military says+++++
+++++UK Intelligence: Number of Russian losses in May 2024 is highest reported since start of war+++++
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