Friday, August 13, 2021

Battle for Senate Heats Up; What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State; Six Takeaways: What the FEC Reports Tell Us About the Midterm Elections

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin
Battle for Senate heats up:
Control of the upper chamber rests on fewer than a dozen races
Republicans are well-positioned to flip control of the House next year, but the battle for the Senate is shaping up to be more of a dogfight, political analysts say.
Democrats are benefiting the most from competitive Senate races playing out in states that President Biden carried in November, and their most vulnerable members have raised lots of cash.
“Just in terms of terrain, Republicans probably have an advantage in the House,” said J. Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. “Well, in the Senate, this is going to be the first midterm since Franklin Roosevelt where every seat the Democrats hold, they hold it in a Biden state. In other words, one of the advantages Democrats have this year compared to 2010 and 2014 is all the seats they are defending are on friendly turf.”
Republicans netted a gain of six Senate seats in 2010 and nine in 2014, delivering a rebuke of President Obama.
Democrats are hoping to avoid a repeat. The expected passage of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure deal this week will give them some bragging rights when they return home for the August recess. --->READ MORE HERE
What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State:
An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterms and beyond.
The latest with redistricting
Arguably the most important factor in the 2022 midterm elections will be congressional redistricting. Where will each party gain power? Lose power? And will the new districts even be drawn in time for next year’s primaries? Right now, though, the redistricting process is behind schedule due to delays caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The Census Bureau says that it will now release the block-level data necessary for redistricting on Aug. 12, which will likely set off a redistricting scramble. Many states face early constitutional or statutory deadlines to finalize their new maps — including some that are impossibly early, inspiring certain states to seek legal extensions in court. One state, Colorado, has even gone ahead and drawn a draft of a congressional map using population estimates from 2019. (The lines will have to be adjusted with 2020 data before becoming official.) Several other state legislatures, meanwhile, will reconvene later this year to belatedly redraw their districts. We at FiveThirtyEight will be tracking the whole redistricting process, from proposed maps to final maps, so watch this space for updates! --->READ MORE HERE
Six takeaways: What the FEC reports tell us about the midterm elections:
Members of the House and Senate have stockpiled a collective $645 million in campaign cash as they begin the slow run toward next year’s midterm elections.
That money offers early hints about the emerging battlegrounds in those elections where each party sees opportunities on the critical path forward.
Here are six takeaways from The Hill’s analysis of the latest Federal Election Commission reports:
Vulnerable Senate Democrats know they’re vulnerable
Sens. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) have been in Washington for just a few months, but they are already emerging as the best fundraisers in the Senate. --->READ MORE HERE

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