Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Pollster Who Called Trump Win In 2016 is Back With 2020 Call; The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead, and related stories

AP Photo/Evan Vucci
Pollster Who Called Trump Win In 2016 is Back With 2020 Call And Issues a Big Red Flag in Pennsylvania:
The latest state polling by the Trafalgar Group predicts another win for President Trump in the upper 270s to low 280s in the Electoral College, but the CEO highlights a couple of big cautions for Republicans.
In a lengthy interview on National Review’sThe Editors” podcast, Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly told NR’s Rich Lowry that he predicts Trump will win the battleground states of Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. He said things are tighter in Wisconsin and Arizona, though Cahaly says Trump has the lead and will “probably win” in Arizona.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #FL #BattlegroundState #poll conducted Oct 11-13 shows Trump maintaining a lead with:
46.1% @JoeBiden,
2.1% all others,

— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 14, 2020
In Michigan, where senatorial candidate John James has a slight lead, Cahaly says that a combination of James’s strength, hatred for Governor Whitmer’s COVID response and her job-killing Green New Deal, and the Trump economy will propel the president to a win there --->READ MORE HERE
Jonathan Ernst/Reuters
The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead:
The upstart Trafalgar Group doesn’t see 2020 the same way everyone else does.
The polling aggregator on the website RealClearPolitics shows the margin in polls led by Joe Biden in a blue font and the ones led by Donald Trump in red. For a while, the battleground states have tended to be uniformly blue, except for polls conducted by the Trafalgar Group.
If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing why one pollster is departing from nearly everyone else.
To this end, I checked in with Robert Cahaly, who is predicting a Trump victory, on the latest edition of The Editors podcast. This piece is based on our conversation. --->READ MORE HERE
Follow links below to related stories:

Is Trump Really Only a Few Percentage Points Away from 270 Electoral Votes?

How Trump Might Be Winning

Pollster Who Shows Trump Leading Exposes Truth About Rest of Polling Industry

Gallows Polls: Democrats, Beware the Internals

Biden campaign memo warns Trump ‘neck and neck’ in several key states

CBS poll: Biden holds slight lead on Trump in Arizona, Wisconsin

Joe Biden’s polling lead slips in wake of Post report on Hunter

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