Sunday, October 11, 2020

POLLS: 56% Americans Say They Are Better Off Now Under Trump Than Four Years Ago Under Obama-Biden; Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees a Trump 275 Electoral Vote Victory, and other Poll News

Poll: 56% Americans Say They Are Better Off Now Under Trump Than Four Years Ago Under Obama-Biden:
A solid majority of 56 percent of Americans say they are better off now than they were four years ago, a new Gallup survey reveals.
Only 32 percent say they are worse off than four years ago. The number is, as Fox News’s Laura Ingraham noted on Thursday night, “the highest Gallup has ever recorded.”
President Trump responded to the survey in a tweet:
The Gallup Poll has just come out with the incredible finding that 56% of you say that you are better off today, during a pandemic, than you were four years ago (OBiden). Highest number on record! Pretty amazing!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 9, 2020
Historically speaking, this bodes very well for President Donald Trump as he seeks reelection. Right around previous presidential elections when an incumbent has been seeking reelection dating back to the mid-1980s, never has this number been this high — or even at a majority. For instance, when former President Barack Obama was seeking reelection in early 2012, the number was at 45 percent. It stayed at that level through the election that Obama won until December 2012. Likewise, when former President George W. Bush was seeking reelection in 2004 — in October — the number was at 47 percent. The junior Bush won. When former President George H.W. Bush was seeking reelection in 1992, the number dropped down to 38 percent — and the senior Bush lost. But in 1984, when former President Ronald Reagan was seeking reelection — he won 49 states in a landslide defeat of his Democrat opponent — the number was down at just 44 percent. --->READ MORE HERE
Poll Which Correctly Called 2016 Election Sees Another "Shocking" Outcome In November:
With Election Day less than a month away, we look at which party will likely control the White House, Senate and House in 2020… and what to watch for on Election Night.
Currently, the major polls give former Vice President Biden more than a 9-point lead nationally against President Trump – according to RealClearPolitics National Average.
And the Predictit markets imply a 67% probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. Additionally, those markets suggest that Democrats will win both the Senate and House (66% and 88% probabilities, respectively). Quite simply, it appears that a Blue Wave is fast approaching, something which the market has not only priced in, but has successfully digested as a favorable narrative for risk assets.
It would be easy to simply close the books and call the November contest over. But, of course, the major polls were all wrong in 2016; notably about the presidential race.
In the following Election Review from Camelot Portfolios, we look at what some of the polling firms that called 2016 correctly are seeing today. "Shocking", their polling suggests that President Trump will be re-elected, either narrowly or by a large margin. Therefore, as Camelot notes, "capital allocators today cannot easily assume next month’s results." --->READ MORE HERE
Follow links below to other polling news:

Poll: Trump Now Ahead of Biden, But Within Margin of Error, in 7 Battleground States

Money talks: Economy remains top voter issue

82% of Black People Want More Money Spent Fighting Crime

Most voters believe 'democracy is in danger' this election: Poll

Public opposes packing Supreme Court with liberal judges, Washington Examiner/YouGov poll finds

Finally, an accurate poll?

NBC-WSJ Poll Gives Biden 14 Point Lead... By Massively Oversampling Democrats

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