A new analysis finds that immigration will dramatically reshape the Electoral College map in favor of the Democratic Party after completion of the 2020 U.S. Census.
Rising immigrant populations around the United States will result in several solidly Democratic states gaining more seats in the House of Representatives at the expense of solidly Republican states, a new study by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) finds. The shift will ultimately give the Democratic Party more influence in the Electoral College map, according to CIS.
As the 2020 Census approaches, CIS conducted a study to predict what the Electoral College map will look like after the counting is done. Under current policy, all individuals are included in the population count, regardless of citizenship or immigration status. Democratic states are expected to be bolstered with more congressional representation — thus giving them more influence in the Electoral College — thanks to their burgeoning immigrant populations.
All immigrant populations — including naturalized citizens, legal residents, and illegal aliens — and their American-born children will redistribute 26 House seats in 2020, the study predicts.
Of the 26 seats predicted to shift, 24 are expected to be taken away from states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Ohio is expected to lose three seats; Pennsylvania and Michigan will lose two; and Arkansas, Alabama, Idaho, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Kentucky, Missouri, North Carolina, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Wisconsin, and West Virginia will each lose one seat, according to CIS.
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