Monday, April 23, 2018

Don’t Panic About Ted Cruz

Tasos Katopodis/WireImage
Don’t stress about just one poll – fundamentals still favor Republicans in Texas
On Wednesday, Quinnipiac released a poll showing Texas Sen. Ted Cruz leading Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke by only three points. Democrats have been hoping that O’Rourke would be the candidate who finally delivers them from their Lone Star drought (Democrats haven’t won a senate seat or gubernatorial election there since 1990) and turns Texas purple—or even blue. And some on the GOP side might worry that this poll is the first sign that they’re right—and that not even the second place finisher in the 2016 presidential primary is safe.
But the GOP shouldn’t panic. Texas still looks like a likely Republican hold.
The fundamentals favor Cruz. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016, and Romney won it by 16 points in 2012. That's a lot of padding for the GOP—enough to potentially withstand a Democratic wave. And in a simple model that looks at national presidential approval, statewide partisanship, candidate quality, and incumbency suggests that if Trump is at 42 percent approval nationally on Election Day, Cruz has a roughly 80 percent chance of holding his seat. An 80 percent chance isn’t a guarantee and Trump's approval rating could fall, but these numbers suggest that this race is “Likely Republican” rather than a “Toss-up.”
Read the rest of the story HERE.

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1 comment:

cimbri said...

I'm not worried about Cruz losing, although people do have to be aware and make sure they vote. We get this every 4 years - "Texas will go blue", etc. It never happens.