Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Op-ed: Two Scenarios...as the Clock Ticks Down

Two Scenarios...as the Clock Ticks Down

By: Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / Right Side Patriots on American Political Radio

As we tether on the brink of war with rogue nation North Korea, I offer two scenarios as to how this will go. Scenario one lays out the case for war, scenario two (included in this article) shows why war might not be the real objective. I leave it to you to decide which is more likely, but only time will tell how this all plays out.
Scenario number one: 
North Korea 'will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen' if more threats emerge.” 
- President Donald Trump, August 8, 2017
Words said that are anything but reckless saber rattling nor are they words of belligerence as many in Congress...both Democrats and RINO Republicans...try to make them out to be...for these are words said by our president rightfully preparing us for possible war.

North Korea...the Democratic People's Republic of Korea... aka the 'Hermit Kingdom...is a thorn in both America's and the world's side. A country whose people are suffering yet a country remaining at the mercy of a madman who now has the capability to launch an ICBM with a small nuclear tipped warhead riding atop it. North Korea...now for the time being relegating the always ongoing islamist threat to second place as the very mad man-child in charge...Kim Jong-un...is willing to sell out the lives of his own people to the highest bidder. In fact, he already has, for with North Korea now claiming to have the miniaturization process...whether developed on their own or gotten from their ally Iran...means that Iran..."Death to America" Iran...either already has said process or soon will have it courtesy of North Korea.

Islamists to the east of us...a madman to the west of us...surely aligned together and closing in for the kill. 

Closing in and aided by not only an international community whose answer to war is singing kumbaya songs of peace, but also by some in our own Congress...'deep state' operatives all...who relish in calling out our president for bravely drawing 'red lines' in the sand...'red lines' daring the man-child to cross. And Congress' solution...slapping even more useless sanctions on a country we have sanctioned since 1953...a country sanctioned to the hilt and yet a country who has steadily grown militarily stronger...aided by the misguided policies of appeasement by our last three presidents.

So as we sit on the brink of war...'real' war with nukes part of the equation...I find it hard to believe that some once 'warriors' have now become 'lambs'...'lambs' easily led to the slaughter while true warriors know and understand that in war blood must be shed...maybe even demanding to be shed...in order for true peace to take hold. And that war we now face before there can be peace has the enemy in possession of up to 60 nuclear weapons...more than three times the number our previous president led us all to believe.

Now "carefully examining" plans to strike the U.S. territory of Guam in a preemptive strike of his own because our current president dared to upset the sensibilities of said man-child in charge, what is forgotten in the rhetoric of words said is that last month the man-child successfully test fired his country's second Hwasong 14 ICBM, with both political analysts and military leaders saying that this particular rocket could potentially strike the very heart of our own country.

And yet our president's critics abound...a misinformed and uniformed bunch of 'doom and gloomers' who fear what the media claims is our president's "unpredictability”...politically fueled critics who relish in adding to both the ever-growing concern and fear over wars threat as well as to the escalating perception that our Commander-in-Chief may seriously be considering a preemptive strike on the man-child's homeland...a preemptive strike they claim would have catastrophic consequences.

But what these critics and 'doom and gloom' for the most part liberal propagandists do not get is that the only way to prevent a full-blown war is to preemptively strike and take out the very one threatening war not the one rightfully responding to those threats...and in this case that one is the mad man-child Kim Jong-un. And when the strikes begin...when the bombs start to fall...what will be seen is a country amass in poor starving people probably welcoming said strikes knowing they soon will not only be free but be fed. And the rumored million-man army will high-tail it and run as fast and as far as they can, just as many in Iraq's army did not too many years ago.

And if today's Chamberlain-type of despot placators still do not understand that it truly is either them or us...and them now is a 'twofer' as war with North Korea will also be war with Iran...then we truly have lost the war before it even begins.

So how would preemptive strikes work against North Korea...the country George W. Bush called the “axis of evil” and Condoleeza Rice called an “outpost of tyranny”...and for good reason for when six million of a country's people are starving while their mad man-child dictator could care less...you just know that brutality given must become brutality paid back. 

But the brutality that some fear in preemptive strikes is seen as being uncalled for at this time...but know that the longer we wait to remove the threat the more time the threat has to fester and grow. And sadly, into this mix now comes the kumbaya sorts' supposedly' on our side who simply do not understand that sometimes war is not only a must but is actually morally just.

And the question being bandied about on social media, as well as the mainstream media over the past few days is simple…should a preemptive strike be launched against North Korea and when exactly should we do said launch? 

And the matter of when is on a timetable set by the man-child who last Wednesday saw North Korea's military calling our president's threat of a preemptive strike a "load of nonsense" adding that only "absolute force can work on the president.” But the man-child and his military have it wrong for the power of force will be by us even if it now has to be called 'retaliation'...retaliation to also include righting the wrongs done by the last three presidents who allowed this all to happen. 

And with the man-child and his generals...most specifically Gen. Kim Rak Gyom...now setting a date of mid-August either for strikes of four intermediate-range ballistic missiles to come within 20 or so miles of Guam or to be on Andersen Air Force Base itself..."to send a serious warning signal to the U.S."...there always is the possibility that this is but a diversionary war of words to keep us focused on one place while North Korea actually sends a little 'gift' to America's mainland or even to the state of Hawaii...a mere 20 minutes away for an ICBM launched from North Korea and a state now rapidly developing what Hawaiian state officials call an "informational campaign” aimed at instructing Hawaii's residents and visitors what to do if Hawaii is indeed the target of a said missile attack.

So decisions and plans must be made post-haste to do what needs to be done whether Guam itself is the target or not...whether it would be a preemptive strike or a retaliatory response... and it needs to be done whether the current fuse is temporarily diffused and no matter that the Chinese government still calls for restraint in the "provocations” between the U.S. and North Korea. But the questions that need to be answered are what is involved in actually going to war with North Korea and how would said war actually be carried out.

While taking out North Korea's military airfields and missile launch sites is the first must and could be accomplished in a relatively short period of time by focused carpet-bombing targeted areas, not to be forgotten is that the evacuating of tens of thousands of U.S. civilians from South Korea has to immediately take place for the man-child would most likely retaliate against South Korea first, possibly even with the chemical weapons we know they possess...possess to a tune of between 2,500 and 5,000 tons of said weapons, including VX nerve agent. But an evacuation of that scope could take weeks during which time we would need to add to our current 30,000 troop presence in South Korea in what's called "a reinforcement of shooters,” which would include not only U.S. man-power but Navy warships and submarines armed with cruise missiles, plus Air Force bombers that could operate out of bases in Japan or whatever bases are left on Guam. 

And while the South Korean military...650,000 active troops plus three million in reserve... would do most of the initial fighting the 30,000 U.S. troops currently in South Korea including the U.S. 8th Army 2nd Infantry Division...who brings with it a combat aviation brigade, a field artillery brigade, an armored brigade combat team, and a chemical weapons battalion...would aid in the ground fighting. And while U.S. air power using sophisticated air defense and anti-artillery systems hits key North Korean military positions, the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division would deploy its brigade combat team of paratroopers...part of America’s Global Response Force...to aid on the ground. And let's not forget the Marines...close by in Japan.

Sounds like an easy win...right...wrong...as North Korea's million-man army is well trained in the art of ground fighting and Seoul would be target number one as they surround it while the rest of the South comes under their attack. And that raises the question of would we be able to "subdue” the man-child's military quickly enough to reduce civilian casualties in South Korea especially in Seoul. And I am not so sure that's possible as Seoul is only about 35 miles south of the demilitarized zone...which would afford North Korean rockets and artillery the chance to cause significant if not major damage to the areas 25 million people. And unknown to most is that the demilitarized zone is riddled with underground military tunnels leading from the North to the South with each being able to funnel 20,000 North Korean troops per hour into the South.

And then there is the fact that even with a full-scale what is called 'conventional war'...minus the horror of nukes being thrown into the mix...said war would still devastate the entirety of the Korean Peninsula. And that devastation could leave in its wake up to one million dead and a humanitarian crisis unseen since the end of WWII no matter that in the end the man-child and his regime would be taken out.
So is taking out North Korea worth it...is the what could be a staggering loss of human life worth it...or is it better to let the still at this time war of words run its course and then settle once again into what seems up to this point and this president to be diplomatic appeasement? To the first two scenarios I say 'yes' for not only is the end result the proverbial 'better them than us' but the time is so long passed for the United States to flex its military muscle and put the world on course for true peace to take hold.
And know that all our survival depends on it for if North Korea is not stopped Iran will be the next one coming for us...and the naysayers, kumbaya sorts, and those still whining that Donald Trump is president be damned.
Scenario number two: 

While the first scenario seems on the surface to be the most likely...at least we are being led to believe so...there is another possible scenario that must be spoken about...a scenario that even our president might not be telling us. First, it must be accepted as fact that discussions are going on behind the scenes to end the standoff and tone down the rhetoric between President Trump and Kim Jong-un... discussions that will never be 'tweeted' about for obvious security reasons...discussions that are ongoing between Joseph Yun...the United States Special Representative for North Korea Policy and concurrently the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Korea and Japan in the U.S. State Department, as well as being the man who succeeding in getting out of North Korea, American student Otto Warmbier and accompanied him home... and Pak Song Il, a senior North Korean diplomat at the country's U.N. mission.

Second, while we and the rest of the western world call Kim Jong-un a mad man-child...an insane and brutal despot...the fact is that sometimes madmen come close to ruling the world as was the case with both Adolph Hitler and to a lesser degree Joseph Stalin. Brilliant military tacticians via military advice taken, these men manipulated millions to fight their battles without them actually having physical blood running down their hands. And such could be the case with the man-child who is manipulating us to gear up to do one thing when his plan all along is to sneak up from behind and have us lose 'face' while he...if not securing a military victory...does come out on top in the end.

Let me explain.

Kim Jong-un to most everyone's surprise, under a pseudonym as the son of a Korean diplomat, was partly western educated in of all places Germany, and he has a taste for all the 'niceties' we take for granted. And he also is a man who has made himself over into a clone of his much admired and somewhat westernized grandfather Kim Il-sung...weight gain and all. And why... because during much of Kim Il-sung's rule...especially in the 1960's through the 1970's... North Korea's economy was actually bigger than that of South Korea's and as such was taken somewhat seriously on the world stage. However, today, much to the fault of his father, Kim Jong-il, under whose regime the country suffered from years of famine mostly due to his own gross economic mismanagement...the per capita income in the North is sadly less than five percent of the South's.

Kim Jong-un is smart enough to know that this one issue... a severely stagnating if not on the verge of collapsing economy...an economy showing no signs of recovery... actually puts both his political legitimacy and legacy at stake. Correct that perception and the once thought of as a mad man-child now becomes a political and economic entity whose country can no longer be be ignored.

So how would he pull that off while at the same time lauding a victory of sorts over President Trump and manipulate our country at the same time...he would do it through what in North Korea is known as a policy of 'byungjin'...meaning 'parallel advance.' This simply means that his seeming all-consuming pursuit of nuclear weapons would continue while at the same time he silently pursues his true goal of economic salvation. And here's the thing...using the quest for nuclear weapons as a diversion of sorts allows him to secretly focus on trying to set in motion much needed economic growth and honor his and his country's beloved (for better or worse) grandfather in return. Remember, in Oriental cultures, and even for despots, ancestral honoring is a must.

Now how would Kim Jong-un accomplish this...by doing what no North Korean leader before him could do...getting sanctions (or at least some key ones) that have been in place since 1953 lifted in exchange for a (seeming) halt to his nuclear ambitions...and I say 'seeming' as he would still pursue said weapons albeit quietly. Think of it this way...all Kim Jong-un's testing of missiles, enriching of uranium, and threats to destroy any in his way, are really just showy and empty bloviations because, for the most part, all his missile tests have failed, never reaching an intended target, and we have no definitive proof positive that North Korea has secured the needed nuclear weapons miniaturization process...all we have is Kim Jong-un's word and the word of those loyal to him as say so. 

In fact, just two days ago, South Korea's Vice Defense Minister Suh Choo-suk said, "Both the United States and South Korea do not believe North Korea has completely gained re-entry technology in material engineering terms,"* and that they are at least one or two years away from doing so. And on this past 'Fox News Sunday,' C.I.A. Director Mike Pompeo said that while Kim Jong-un might conduct another missile test, talk of being on the brink of nuclear war was overstated, adding that, "I've seen no intelligence that would indicate that we're in that place today,"

Remember too, all this talk about miniaturization success and other such related matters started just mere days after the latest sanctions went into effect...coincidence...I think not.

And Kim Jong-un, no matter our name calling, is indeed smart enough to know that he cannot win militarily against the might of the U.S...he knows well that to fight us would be the end of his regime with 'face'...if not his life...lost. But if he could force the releasing of sanctions by bringing his and our country to the brink of nuclear war...a war he never really intended to start...and then at the last minute reaches an agreement of sorts before the first missile is scheduled to be launched...an agreement that would include some sanctions being lifted... which was the man-child's true goal all along...then in his eyes he and North Korea become the winners and President Trump and the U.S. the losers...'face' wise that is.

It really is all about money as is usually the case for economics dictates politics and policy as politics is but a function of economics.

And that makes sense what with China's official state run newspaper, Xinhua, stating that China would stay neutral if North Korea strikes first and that they would not help militarily if they dared to do so. And in a way it mirrors what Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called for as in “maximum restraint” for their two countries do not want to be part of not only a losing outcome for North Korea...and doing so at great monetary cost to their said countries...but they know that if Kim Jong-un does succeed in getting sanctions lifted...even if it is just the latest ones...then they could pressure President Trump into giving their respective countries some sanctions relief as well...and do so in the name of peace.

So could all the saber rattling be nothing but a cleverly crafted monetary manipulation by the one we can no longer just assume to be a mad man-child with a ridiculous haircut...but a cleverly crafted manipulation by one who actually does understand that in order to stay in power he needs to have a viable economy of sorts.

And so I have presented what I consider the two most likely scenarios we face, both of which need to play out to see which one comes to fruition. But know that in either case the real loser is the North Korean people themselves for they could see their country not only destroyed but destroyed with the possibility of one million dead in scenario number one; and they get to keep the man-child as their 'supreme ruler' in scenario number two, knowing well that now that very 'supreme ruler' will be even more egotistical, narcissistic, bombastic, and dangerous than ever before. 

For more on North Korea and other scenarios, please read my RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS partner and friend Craig Andresen's article in the National Patriot by clicking here: http://www.thenationalpatriot.com/2017/08/north-koreas-fate-is-in-kim-jong-uns-hands/
* Re-entry technology allows a missile warhead to survive the heat and pressure sustained when reentering the Earth’s atmosphere, and is a key technological threshold required in order to field a reliable ICBM force.

Copyright @ 2017 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved

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Tonight, Tuesday, August 15th from 7 to 9pm on American Political Radio, RIGHT SIDE PATRIOTS Craig Andresen and Diane Sori discuss all things North Korea, and important news of the day.  

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