Monday, May 8, 2017

Forecaster Sees Improved Democratic Chances in 20 House Races After Health-Care Bill Passes

Meh. Dave Wasserman and the Cook Political Report are respected forecasters, but only three of the 20 seats have moved from “lean Republican” to “toss up.” And Wasserman’s analysis is loaded with caveats, understandably:
Of the 23 Republicans sitting in districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 voted for the repeal and replace measure. For these Republicans, time is still on their side and healthcare reform can’t be disposed of soon enough. There are still 18 months before the 2018 election, whereas House Democrats eked out final passage of the ACA less than eight months before the 2010 midterms. These Republicans can’t afford a year-long Senate slog.
Besides the election calendar, another comfort to these Republicans has been their over-performance in the most recent election…
The irony is that Democrats’ temptation to refer to the GOP’s bill “Trumpcare” may actually raise the popularity of the legislation. Trump’s job approval, though low, is still almost double the public support for repealing and replacing some of the ACA’s most popular provisions. And Democrats will need to go beyond lecturing voters about the bill’s “morally bankruptcy” – their candidates will need to convince independent voters how hard the bill could hit their pocketbooks.
Read the rest from ALLAHPUNDIT HERE.

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