To win in November, obviously, Donald Trump will have to rack up stronger margins over his opponent than Mitt Romney did in 2012. And for Hillary Clinton to win, she can’t do significantly worse than Barack Obama did.
So what’s keeping this race tight? Both candidates, in different ways, are trailing their 2012 equivalents in key measures.
The latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Mrs. Clinton leading her Republican rival by six percentage points, 43% to 37%, with two lesser candidates nabbing 12% combined.
But in a stark illustration of Mr. Trump’s challenge, the poll showed him underperforming Mr. Romney’s marks among every portion of the population, including among the groups where he will have to rack up truly historic numbers to offset declines elsewhere, particularly among non-white voters.
For instance, Mr. Trump has performed particularly well among white voters who lack a college degree, a contingent that made up around 36% of the electorate in 2012. In the new poll, the GOP nominee performed well among that slice, topping Mrs. Clinton by 18 percentage points.
But Mr. Romney, in his loss in 2012, did much better in the election exit polls among that same group, leading Mr. Obama by 26 percentage points.
Pick your group and you will find the same dynamic.Read the rest from the WSJ HERE.
If you like what you see, please "Like" us on Facebook either here or here. Please follow us on Twitter here.