Registrations in battlegrounds show modest rise from 2012, analysis finds; whites make up larger share of new-voter pool
This year’s presidential primaries produced a slight increase in new voters compared with 2012, but not in numbers that suggest a major influx that might benefit Republican candidate Donald Trump, a new analysis of voter registration data finds.
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The study by the Democratic firm Catalist, which analyzed records from 10 battleground states this year through June, suggest that the record-breaking turnout seen in the Republican primaries was the result of general election voters becoming motivated to show up for the party’s turbulent primary season, rather than a big inflow of new supporters into the Republican Party.
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But in potential good news for the Trump campaign, Catalist found that white voters accounted for a larger share of the new-voter pool in the first half of this year compared with 2012, and that the number and share of African-Americans was down. Mr. Trump has been trying to capitalize on his strong support among working-class whites, while his hold on African-American voters is weak, polling shows.
Mr. Trump has said that his candidacy during the primary season was drawing large numbers of new voters to the GOP, who would carry him to victory in November. The Catalist findings, from a large analysis of registrations, suggest that the pool of new voters in 10 of the most competitive states is so far relatively stable compared with previous election cycles, barring any major new spikes in fall voter registration.Read the rest of the story HERE.
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