Sunday, August 28, 2016

Trump Is Losing Pennsylvania and Closing His Path to the White House

Reuters Photo/Carlo Allegri
The chance was there, but he has squandered it.
Donald Trump’s presidential campaign slogs on, but he has effectively blown his chances at getting into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. By failing to pivot through his convention, by failing to build a ground team in important states, and by failing to reassure voters uneasy with his primary rhetoric, Trump has killed his campaign. The result: His numbers with college-educated voters and blacks have dropped dramatically, effectively locking him out of states such as Florida, Ohio, and, yes, Pennsylvania.
This piece could be rather short. Indeed, I could simply say what most analysts think but are careful not to admit loudly for fear of being proven wrong: Trump, at this rate, isn’t going to be president. Instead, I will try to explain why — which, in short, is that he has no credible path. At one time, it looked as if Trump could make it to the White House through Pennsylvania (a few weeks ago, I made this case at length). Now, however, his numbers in that state are plummeting. That Clinton “bounce” we heard so much about after the Democratic election? It’s now a sustained gap, and it threatens to swallow most if not all of the endangered down-ballot seats.
On the face of it, Pennsylvania is not the be-all, end-all. After all, Trump could still win by collecting a combination of Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, and/or New Hampshire. In truth, though, that avenue seems less likely by the day. Hillary Clinton has been relatively weak in Iowa and Nevada, and the high percentage of no-college whites in each gives Trump at least a fighting chance (though he trails in both state averages). But his atrocious numbers in Wisconsin and New Hampshire almost certainly rule out his achieving the quartet. He has, in short, nowhere to go. ...
Read the rest of the story HERE.

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