Pushing for a Brokered Convention By: Diane Sori / The Patriot factor /
Right Side Patriots on americanpbn.com
“I don’t think anyone in our party should say, ‘Oh no, even if the
people of the party wanted me to be president, I would say no to
it'...”No one is going to say that.”
- Mitt Romney when recently asked by a reporter
whether he would accept the Republican nomination in the event of a
brokered convention
Donald Trump's followers keep flooding the online polls in an attempt to
try and prove that either last week's poor debate performance didn't
hurt their boy or that he won it no matter that anyone with even one
working brain cell could see that Trump got caught in a Rubio/Cruz
sandwich. Being once again ill-prepared to discuss the issues, Trump didn't
know key facts relating to the questions asked and as such reverted back
to his usual personal attack style, but even that backfired as he turned
red, sweated, and appeared ready to implode from within. That debate
hurt him and it was proven by Ted Cruz's two big wins in last Saturday's
primaries.
So
Trump's latest tactic is to now bait the Republican party into
thinking that if he is not the nominee that chaos will ensue if what's
known as a brokered convention...some call it a contested
convention...becomes reality. But know that there
really is no need to fear this for all a brokered convention means is
that no candidate received enough delegates on the first round to
lock-in the nomination and that now further voting must be done. It is
not a
sign that any 'monkey business' has been going on or that any will go
on.
Simply put...the convention would then be deadlocked with the nominee now having to be chosen through multiple
rounds of voting by delegates from all 50 states and the six U.S.
territories instead of the delegates entering the floor with the nominee
already chosen. And a brokered convention is legal, above board, and
is playing by the rules no matter that Trump supporters claim otherwise.
So what is it that Trump supporters are claiming...they're claiming
delusions...for their thinking is that if Donald Trump wins the most
states and delegates but still falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed
to legally secure the nomination that the nomination should be his no
matter numbers to the contrary. And the fact is that if a brokered
convention happens it will be the result of a process that is not a
secret for as I mentioned above no one candidate garnered the must
have majority of votes...it is that simple. And, according to
Real Clear Politics, it's the way individual states select delegates
that allows for the fact that if any of what some call 'establishment'
exists, it’s at the less high-profile state and county levels. And those
delegates would be picked from amongst local level party officials or
from a coalition of delegates for
'underperforming' candidates who could then band together and decide the
nomination allowing someone who may have only managed to take third or
fourth place in the overall voting to become the nominee.
And yes, this would be within the confines of the rules and this is what
has many of the Trumpers in an uproar no matter that's how the game is
played. And if it did get to that point, it would be the first time in
40 years that no one candidate had enough delegates going into the first
round of balloting...with the last time being when incumbent President
Gerald Ford and nominee Ronald Reagan battled for the nomination. But
deals were made before the first round of balloting allowing Ford enough
votes to secure the nomination stopping the convention from going
brokered. However, in 1948, there was indeed a brokered convention when
Thomas Dewey became the Republican nominee after three ballots, but it
must be remembered that when it came to the general election both Ford
and Dewey lost.
But when all is said and done the race to the nomination comes down to
one simple number...1,237... and coming short of that number is
the only way to stop Donald Trump from becoming the nominee...and doing
so by playing by the rules for to do otherwise will not only ruin the
process but would render what remains of the Republican party, for all intents and
purposes, null and void.
So how do the other candidates rack up the needed numbers to stop Donald
Trump...the only way to do so is by blending their combined delegates
together to secure the needed count to stop Trump from reaching the
magic number of 1,237.
And to that affect Ted Cruz should not be telling Marco Rubio or John
Kasich to drop out of the race as both men are needed in order to stop
Trump from getting the nomination...as in the more delegates they rack
up in addition to Cruz's number the more Trump will not reach the needed
1,237 number. And Ted Cruz needs to realize that he cannot reach that
number alone because he no chance of winning the delegate rich northeast
states...especially the delegates from the Trump friendly
winner-take-all states of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania...yet
the three's numbers together can stop Trump and send the convention to
brokered. So, Ted Cruz needs to rethink his words...seriously rethink
his words...or not only will he not get the nomination but he will be
the cause of the White House staying in Democratic control.
But the fact remains that it's all about numbers and the math is far
from certain, but here is one scenario where the convention could go
brokered. If Marco Rubio can beat Trump in Florida, if John Kasich can
beat him in Ohio, and if Ted Cruz can pick up more of the 'Plains'
states, then Trump might very well come up short of the all important
1,237 number, despite his currently being well ahead of all his current
rivals.
So what happens at a brokered convention...first, it must be remembered
that when you hear that a certain candidate has won a certain number of
delegates, that does not mean that said candidate gets to hand-pick those who
will go to the convention to represent him. It's each individual
state's Republican party hierarchy who choose from party members those
who will go to the convention with orders to vote for said candidate
during the first round of balloting, but only during the first round,
then being released to vote for the candidate of their choice at the
next round of balloting.
Second, now the reeling and dealing begins...to talk, vote, and
negotiate no matter how long it takes until one and only one
candidate...or even an individual not on the original ballot...garners
that magic number of 1,237.
And while 1,237 is indeed the number needed to secure the nomination,
there is something most don't know about and that's an item called
'Rule 40'...a rule where a candidate has to win a majority of the
delegates in at least eight states in order to be considered for the
nomination. And that in and of itself is quite unfair as winning eight
large states but states with a low delegate count cancels out someone
who might only win five or six states but having those states being
delegate rich. But the rules are allowed to be amended right up to the
time the convention begins, so we can assume that 'Rule 40' will be
changed or even eliminated making a brokered convention more likely. And
while delegates are obligated to vote for a certain candidate during
round one they do not have to show support for rules which blatantly
favor one candidate over another.
To break down the numbers even further...if the convention does indeed
go brokered...and I hope it will...what exactly will happen. First, we
need to look at the delegate count as it stands now. Right now at the
time of this writing Democrat masquerading as a Republican Donald Trump
has 384 delegates; Ted Cruz has 300 delegates; Marco Rubio has 151
delegates; and John Kasich has 37 delegates; with March 15th being the
target date to see if Rubio and Kasich are still viable candidates.
However, and this is important, to date, Cruz's, Rubio's, and Kasich's
numbers together reach 488 delegates 'trumping' Trump, and as the
primaries and caucuses continue that number will increase, that's why
Rubio and Kasich need to stay in the race...to form a wall with Cruz
that Trump cannot cross over, thus denying him the magic 1,237 number.
Now if no candidate currently running reaches the needed 1,237 number
after the first ballot is called, all delegates are released from who
they are pledged to and can vote for the candidate of their choice or
they can nominate anyone they so choose to in the next round of
balloting. This is the part that many fear for what if a delegate
nominated Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan...and what if one of those who
already dropped out of the race was nominated, say Chris Christie...and
what if that person got 1,237 delegates to support them...the fact is
they would then become the defacto nominee. And it's legal, binding, and
nothing to the contrary could be done to stop it. So the goal now is to
not just stop Donald Trump but to assure that either Cruz, Rubio, or
Kasich is the nominee as these men are the ones the public already has
voted for.
And how do we assure this happens...by making sure that Marco Rubio wins Florida
and John Kasich wins Ohio. That puts both men back into the fray and makes
them and Ted Cruz a possible nominee even if the convention goes
brokered, because delegates would then be freed to vote for the one they
personally think could best beat Hillary. And know, too, that there are
now percentages of remaining delegates that Trump needs to win the
nomination...Trump needs another 54% of all the remaining
delegates while Ted Cruz needs to win 60% of said delegates; Rubio needs
to win around 69% of the delegates; and Kasich needs to win about 77% of the still to be
awarded delegates...and the range from 54% to 77% is not
insurmountable, it being only a 23% differential between first and last
place...and being reachable only through a brokered convention.
So now as the primaries move forward and more delegates are amassed by
each man only time will tell who becomes the nominee. But one thing I
will say is that with the anger in our country today...an anger fueled
on by the one candidate who has no tangible policies to back up his
multi-level bloviations...we cannot and must not allow anger at the
process to lead to a write-in Donald Trump party to emerge as that will
most assuredly hand the presidency to Hillary...but maybe that was
Trump's plan all along...just saying.
http://thepatriotfactor.blogspot.com/2016/03/op-ed-pushing-for-brokered-convention.html *********************************************** Today, Wednesday, March 9th,
from 2 to 4pm, Right Side Patriots Craig Andresen and Diane Sori discuss
Hillary's buddy Bryan Pagliano now singing like a bird, the logistics
of a brokered convention, and remembering Nancy Reagan.
Diane, you have your answer on whether the debate hurt Trump. He won 3 or 4 matches last night. Cruz is pretty strong in the prairies states, where the churches bus all their people to the polls, but everywhere else, he's pretty week. No Republican can win in November when he can't even win the Southern states in the primaries. Trump is strong in every region.
Regarding Rule 40 (a presidential nominee must have won the majority of 8 states' delegates), sure you can change the rules midstream and get rid of it, which hurts Cruz and Trump. But it just shows the Republican Party as a banana republic party, if they do that. Why not change all the rules, and just release the delegates as soon as they arrive to the convention? I suppose they can do anything, but they'll just lose to Hillary.
Diane says the insiders will decide who gets the nomination. So all you "little people" out there, placing signs, handing out badges and stickers, going to rallies, you're wasting your time. The insiders will make the final decision, they will have the last word, or so they think.
3 comments:
Sad.
Diane, you have your answer on whether the debate hurt Trump. He won 3 or 4 matches last night. Cruz is pretty strong in the prairies states, where the churches bus all their people to the polls, but everywhere else, he's pretty week. No Republican can win in November when he can't even win the Southern states in the primaries. Trump is strong in every region.
Regarding Rule 40 (a presidential nominee must have won the majority of 8 states' delegates), sure you can change the rules midstream and get rid of it, which hurts Cruz and Trump. But it just shows the Republican Party as a banana republic party, if they do that. Why not change all the rules, and just release the delegates as soon as they arrive to the convention? I suppose they can do anything, but they'll just lose to Hillary.
Diane says the insiders will decide who gets the nomination. So all you "little people" out there, placing signs, handing out badges and stickers, going to rallies, you're wasting your time. The insiders will make the final decision, they will have the last word, or so they think.
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