New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has yet to release his much-anticipated and usually accurate prediction of voter turnout for the First in the Nation primary on Feb. 9, but on Monday he felt confident enough to make this prediction: It will be big.
“The primary that had the most number of votes cast, when you combine both parties, was 2008,” he said. “The turnout was more than 500,000, more than half the voting-age population of the state.”
All indications are that the 2016 New Hampshire primary will beat that record or at least come
close.
“I think we’ll definitely see half a million, and it could easily go over that,” said UNH political science professor Dante Scala. “We have a good shot at going over the 2008 mark. There’s just been so much attention and so many candidates, even if you set aside the Trump factor, which I think is huge.”
The state has historically seen the biggest number of votes cast in those years when there was no incumbent President seeking re-election, as was the case in 2008, when Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama here after losing to him in Iowa.
With no incumbents in the race, and non-traditional candidates from both parties, the stage is set for a record-breaker, especially if the weather cooperates.
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