Saturday, February 6, 2016

Iowa Polls Missed Voters Verdict...Will New Hampshire Polls Be Any Better?

If Donald Trump was feeling cocky on the eve of Monday’s Iowa caucus, he had good reason: 13 polls showed him winning that all-important presidential contest.
They were all wrong — as Texas GOP Sen. Ted Cruz trumped the pollsters, and his rival, to come out on top.
On the Democratic side, the majority of recent polls gave Clinton an edge over her main rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. But Clinton eked out a very narrow win.
Anyone who predicted that outcome deserves a “special pundit medal of honor,” Amy Walter wrote in a post-election analysis for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Political experts pointed to three reasons the polls were off base:
This is an extremely volatile political climate, driven by an angry electorate whose voting preferences are difficult to gauge;
Pollsters low-balled turnout among evangelical voters and underestimated Cruz’s get-out-the-vote operation;
The Iowa caucuses are uniquely tough to predict, with a quirky process and lots of last-minute deciders.
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