Sunday, February 7, 2016

Boston Globe: Ranking the Republican candidates in N.H.

The results of the Iowa caucuses were surprising, but they won’t have that much of an impact on the New Hampshire primary. The fundamental dynamics in New Hampshire remain the same as they have for two months:
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders maintain solid leads in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively. Ted Cruz has consolidated conservatives in New Hampshire. The so-called GOP establishment lane (John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Marco Rubio) is complicated, and the leader changes nearly every week.
Indeed, the greatest impact of the Iowa caucuses is that Rubio is once again leading in the establishment lane. But keeping that lead will be more difficult here than it was in Iowa.
The following rankings are based on recent polling, fundraising, a campaign’s on-the-ground organization and other Globe reporting.
1. Donald Trump, businessman
Before Iowa, Trump had a huge New Hampshire lead that could cushion any loss in the caucuses. He is still the front-runner in the Granite State, but the question is by how much -- and if his Granite State organization can deliver.
Previously: 1st (December), 2nd (July) and 5th (April).
2. Ted Cruz, US senator
It’s easy to see how Cruz could benefit the most in New Hampshire after his win in Iowa. One reason: Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Rand Paul have left the race, and Ben Carson is essentially skipping New Hampshire, so Cruz can just add their support from evangelicals to his vote total. Cruz tops Rubio on this list because the Floridian doesn’t have the same advantage with Christie, Bush and Kasich in the race.
Previously: 2nd (December), 9th (July) and 4th (April)
Read the full story and the rest of the rankings HERE.

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