Islamic State Expands to Russia

ISIS plants a flag in heavily Muslim North Caucasus, think tank reports

The Islamic State group is planting its flag in Russia.

The jihadist organization, which has terrorized populations of religious minorities throughout the Middle East, declared a governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus, according to a Washington think tank that monitors conflicts around the globe.

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The governorate, called Wilayat Qawqaz (Caucasus), was declared June 23 after several senior militants in the heavily Muslim area pledged allegiance to ISIS, says the Institute for the Study of War. The ISW reported:

The announcement pits ISIS against the Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus, an official al-Qaeda affiliate that has operated in the mountainous region of southwestern Russia since 2007. ISIS has been setting conditions to establish this governorate in support of its regional expansion campaign since at least January 2015. ISIS’s statements and actions over the next few weeks will indicate whether the organization intends to launch operations through its new Caucasus affiliate, or whether it simply intends to use the pledge as an opportunity to assert its global vitality and reach. ...

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ISIS Declares Governorate in Russia’s North Caucasus

ISW said that ISIS’s claim of a new wilayat opens a new front in the battle between ISIS and al-Qaeda for the leadership of global jihadism and likely will encourage Russia to increase its counterterrorism operations in the North Caucasus:

The Russian government accelerated its domestic security efforts in the region following a gun battle that Islamic militants initiated against government forces in the Chechen capital of Grozny in December 2014. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov subsequently claimed on April 22 that ISIS is Russia’s “greatest enemy,” ranked above China or NATO. The Russian government will likely use the announcement of Wilayat Qawqaz as a justification to vigorously stamp out separatist sentiment in southern Russia. This may counterproductively fuel popular discontent and militant recruitment within the region. Russia also may use the development as a pretext to increase its involvement in Syria and Iraq, where it has recently equipped the Iraqi Security Forces with new supplies of Russian anti-tank rockets. This foreign intensification by Russia may complicate relations between the United States and its European partners as they attempt to balance Russian participation in the anti-ISIS effort with resistance to Russian actions in Ukraine. It also may overstretch the Russian government, which is balancing engagement in Ukraine and the Middle East with domestic counterterrorism operations and an economic crisis.

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