GOP Presidential Debate Caps Upend 2016 Race

Limited guest list likely will force long-shot candidates to push earlier for name recognition

New rules that limit the number of contenders on stage during the first Republican presidential debates are likely to alter the campaign calculations for many of the GOP candidates, forcing them to try to build national name recognition months earlier than planned.

Four Republicans are poised to formally announce their White House campaigns in the next 10 days, but it is virtually certain that not all of them will qualify for the party’s initial televised debates, the premier venue for introducing themselves to voters.

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Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.) and former officeholders Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and George Pataki will start their campaigns with low standing in national surveys, the barometer Fox News and CNN will use to determine who is invited to participate in GOP-sanctioned debates. None of the four new contenders is drawing above 2.5% in an aggregate of national polls, which could prove too low to meet the networks’ cutoff for making it onstage for the main debate forums.

With national polls largely a function of name recognition, strategists working for various campaigns said they expected long-shot candidates to spend time in cable TV studios in New York that may instead have been used to meet voters at small events in Iowa or New Hampshire. Money that might have gone to build a campaign infrastructure in early states could instead be diverted to buying national TV ads.

Moreover, candidates traditionally have tried to time their campaigns to peak right at the time of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, scheduled this cycle for February. Now, candidates with low name recognition must try to build national profiles—ahead of the first primary debate, set for Aug. 6.

Not being invited to the debates could serve as an early death knell for candidates already in the shadows of fundraising behemoths such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who have yet to formally declare their candidacies, or Sens. Rand Paul, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio.

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