Which States Would Be Hardest Hit If Supreme Court Upends Health-Law Subsidies?

Florida, North Carolina and Texas would be among the states hardest hit if their health-insurance subsidies are struck down by the Supreme Court. Those states had the highest number of consumers who were eligible for tax credits when selecting a plan on the federal HealthCare.gov website, government data show.

A man walks past a sign with information on signing up for 
health insurance under the Affordable Care Act last fall in 
Miami. Photo: AP

Affordable Care Act enrollment figures released Tuesday give the most up-to-date snapshot of which states would bear the brunt of any loss of subsidies. Nearly 7.7 million people who selected a plan using the federal site qualified for an average tax credit of $263 a month to help pay for premiums, according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

The Supreme Court last week heard oral arguments in a case challenging the subsidies obtained through HealthCare.gov, with a decision expected in June, near the end of the court’s term. Opponents of the heath law argue the statutory language allows subsidies only for consumers who buy health insurance through state-run exchanges, not the federal site. HealthCare.gov hosts exchanges—on which people can shop for coverage and apply for tax credits—on behalf of as many as 37 states.

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In total, nearly 11.7 million consumers selected a plan or had their plans automatically renewed as of Feb. 22. The majority, or about 8.8 million, were in the states using HealthCare.gov.

In Florida, about 1.6 million people who picked a plan on the federal site were eligible for financial assistance, according to the new report. In Texas, more than one million were eligible; in North Carolina, more than 550,000; and in Pennsylvania, more than 430,000.

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