Tuesday could be the GOP's Last Chance to Win the Senate for a Long Time

The battle for the Senate appears to be tilting the Republicans' way, but a number of close races leaves the possibility that the party will come up short — as it did in 2010 and 2012.

Yet a narrow defeat this time wouldn't be just another opportunity deferred until the next election; it might feel more like the closing of a door.

While the GOP is expected to gain seats in the House, cementing its majority, a failure to take the Senate could signal an extended stay as the minority party in the upper chamber.

That's because the Senate map in 2016 looks especially tough for the GOP. Democrats will have to defend just 10 seats while Republicans have 24 on the line — including seven in states that twice elected President Obama: Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

WE NEED THIS TO HAPPEN!

"It would be a major morale killer," said Jack Pitney, a Republican campaign hand turned professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. "If they don't win, they have practically no chance of winning in 2016."

Blue Map In 2016?

The 2016 map is pretty much the reverse of 2014, which has Democrats defending seats in seven states won by Mitt Romney, six of them by wide margins, said Geoffrey Skelley, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.

The GOP pick-ups in Democrat-friendly states came with a GOP wave in 2010 as the jobless rate was stuck above 9% and deficits far above $1 trillion and anger of ObamaCare's passage fresh.

More importantly, those seats were won in a midterm election, when the electorate that shows up is different than in presidential election years, Skelley said.

The playing field will be less favorable in these states in 2016 when voters will turn out in higher percentages with a closely contested election, he said.

The good news for the GOP is that the odds favor a Senate takeover this year, with a possibility that they can win 53 or 54 seats to provide a cushion against possible losses in 2016, Skelley said.

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