Business Dollars are moving from Democrat to GOP in Key Senate Races

In a significant shift, business groups gave more money to Republican candidates than to Democrats in seven of the most competitive Senate races in recent months, in some cases taking the unusual step of betting against sitting senators.

Sen. Mark Udall of Colorado, has seen support from business 
PACs diminish in recent weeks, as those groups gave money 
to his Republican challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner. Getty Images

Political-action committees created by businesses had given 61% of their donations in those races to Democrats this election cycle through June. That reversed in the closing months of the campaign, with only 42% going to Democrats and 58% to Republicans in the July-to-September quarter, a Wall Street Journal analysis of Federal Election Commission filings shows.

The change in money flow from business PACs is partly a signal of the groups’ policy preferences and partly a sign of expectations of who is likeliest to win. “Wall Street expects return on investment,” said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, a brokerage firm. “It makes no sense to contribute to a losing campaign.”

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Shifts in business donations have foreshadowed the outcome of several recent elections. Business PACs began shifting toward Democrats late in the 2006 midterm cycle, ahead of a political wave in which Democrats regained control of both the House and Senate. Business contributions swung again early in 2010, ahead of a wave that year that gave Republicans a House majority and gains in the Senate.

Justin Barasky, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said other types of money spent in the election indicate Democrats are far outspending their GOP counterparts. “The DSCC has outraised [its GOP counterpart] by $30 million,” he said in an email.

Business PACs gave less money in the third quarter to Sen 
Kay Hagan of NC than to her GOP Opponent Thom Tillis

Still, in several races, incumbent Democratic senators drew less money in recent months from business PACs than did their GOP challengers, signaling a bet that the incumbents were in danger of losing. Business PACs gave less money to Sens. Kay Hagan of North Carolina and Mark Udall of Colorado in the third quarter than to their GOP opponents, and nearly as much to the Republican challenger in Alaska as to incumbent Sen. Mark Begich.

The contributions to GOP candidates helps offset the hefty advantage Democrats traditionally hold among labor PACs, which gave 99% of their contributions to Democratic candidates in the seven Senate races this election cycle through June. Several unions offered no sign they had given any more support to Republicans in the third quarter.Labor unions typically contribute far less in total to candidates than do corporate PACs.

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