The GOP Gains in Key Senate Races as Gender Gap Narrows

In a warning flag for Democrats, recent polls suggest the party is failing to draw enough support from women in three key Senate races—in Iowa, Arkansas and Colorado—to offset the strong backing that men are giving to Republicans.

Surveys this week in Arkansas and Colorado for the first time also showed the GOP candidates pulling even or ahead of Democrats among women voters, threatening to close the gender gap that has been a cornerstone of Democratic electoral strategy for decades.

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While the situation remains fluid, an erosion in the Democrats’ traditionally large advantage among women would be perilous for the party, especially in an election year in which men, who favor Republicans overall, are showing a greater enthusiasm for voting.

Democrats are making a particular effort to mobilize unmarried women—their strongest supporters, but a group that tends to skip midterm elections. However, the rise of national-security concerns and low approval ratings for President Barack Obama may undercut that effort.

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Trends among female voters are being closely watched by both parties at a time when polls show Senate races in nearly a dozen states are too close to call. In New Hampshire and North Carolina, a big advantage among women is helping to keep Democratic Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Kay Hagan on relatively strong footing in public opinion surveys.

But in Colorado, a USA Today/Suffolk University poll this week found the Republican candidate, Rep. Cory Gardner, leading Democratic Sen. Mark Udall among women, 46% to 39%. The result, if sustained, would be a rebuke to the election strategy of Mr. Udall, who has tried to appeal to suburban women with a heavy emphasis on abortion rights and birth control in his campaign.

Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor also has targeted women voters with a “Women for Pryor” tour of the state early this month and a television ad criticizing his GOP opponent, Rep. Tom Cotton, for voting against legislation to renew federal anti-domestic violence programs. But a new Arkansas poll by Talk Business & Politics/Hendrix College earlier this week saw women favoring Mr. Cotton, 46% to 43%.

In Texas, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wendy Davis, who came to prominence because of her support for abortion rights, is trailing in her campaign against Republican Greg Abbott in part because Mr. Abbott has held a lead of nearly 30 percentage points among men in several surveys. A new poll, released Thursday by the University of Texas and the Texas Tribune, showed Mr. Abbott leading among women, as well, 48% to 46%, while holding a 61%-to-32% lead among men....

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