The Scotts: To Leave or Not to Leave, That is the Question

Campaigners for an independent Scotland are struggling to convince voters that their ancient nation will be better off if it leaves the U.K.

Undecided Scots like Calum Carruthers, a 36-year-old father of two from Dunblane, a cathedral town near Edinburgh, are weighing the potential benefits and risks of ending the country's longtime partnership with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

"Emotionally, my instinct is it would be a good thing," said Mr. Carruthers, who works at a bank. But he added that the economic uncertainty is a huge concern, underscoring the dilemma many Scots are grappling with: "There's an awful lot of pros, but there is one big con staring right at me."

Ahead of a referendum Sept. 18 that could sound the final bell on the union, unionists and secessionists have been sparring over who can offer Scots the brightest economic future. Polls show that just over a third of Scotland's four-million-strong electorate support independence, while around half favor staying in the U.K.—leaving a significant chunk of voters who have yet to make up their minds.

Alex Salmond, the leader of Scotland's semiautonomous government, contends that full independence would catapult Scotland into the club of rich and happy small nations that includes Norway, Finland and Sweden. Those fighting independence, including all three main political parties in London, warn that quitting the U.K. would cost Scotland dearly.

The polls suggest the unionists are winning the economic argument. An August survey by pollster ICM showed only 34% of Scots believe independence would be good for Scotland's economy.

Many businesses in Scotland have reservations about independence. Standard Life PLC, a pensions and investments company based in Edinburgh, in May said it had drawn up plans to move operations to England if Scots vote to secede, citing uncertainties over currencies and taxes. On Monday, National Australia Bank Ltd., owner of Scottish lender Clydesdale Bank, said independence might result in significant extra costs and risks for its business there.

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Nationalists need only a simple majority in the September ballot to end the 1707 union between England and Scotland that followed centuries of antagonism. To many Scots that marriage was a shotgun wedding. A disastrous attempt to establish a colony at Darien on the Isthmus of Panama in the late 17th century left Scotland's finances in ruins. England demanded the union as the price of a bailout.

Scottish independence was for decades a fringe theme in U.K. politics. But the establishment in 1999 of Scotland's semiautonomous Parliament in Edinburgh gave the pro-independence Scottish National Party, led by the charismatic Mr. Salmond, a chance to win power. The party won a landslide victory in 2011 Scottish parliamentary elections and confirmed it would fulfill a pre-election pledge to hold a referendum on independence.

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