Republican 2016 Hopefuls Look Towards Iowa

Across Iowa this week, a casual observer could be forgiven for believing a presidential election is just around the corner.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky just wrapped up a three-day, 10-stop tour of the state, a media throng in tow. Governor Rick Perry of Texas is about to embark on a four-day swing of the state, and four other would-be candidates are heading to a summit with Christian conservatives this weekend.

In New Hampshire? Cue the crickets.

Possible 2016 Republican candidates have spent nearly twice as much time in Iowa — the first GOP caucus state — as they have in New Hampshire, the first primary state and home of a more moderate Republican electorate.

By Saturday, Republican candidates will have scheduled a combined 51 days sampling the political winds in Iowa, compared with 27 days in New Hampshire, according to a tally kept by Democracy in Action, a nonpartisan website that tracks presidential campaign activity.

For a party trying to broaden its base — and make an effort to appeal to minorities, gays, and independents — some activists worry that a lopsided emphasis on the more conservative Midwestern state might be a sign of trouble.

At least, that is the argument in New Hampshire, which has often jostled with Iowa for bragging rights.

“By all means a candidate ought to go to Iowa and test the water,” said Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party. “But sensible candidates are going to come to the conclusion that they don’t have a chance to appeal to a broad electorate there.”

“So you’re going to have this sort of rump caucus that takes place there with a rump group of candidates,” he added. “I just don’t think the Iowa caucus electorate, on the Republican side, is representative of the party.”

The rivalry between Iowa and New Hampshire, increasingly marked by a divide between moderates and conservatives, stretches back decades. The two states have not selected the same Republican candidate in a contested GOP nomination since 1976. Since then, Iowa picked the eventual party nomination winner three times, while New Hampshire elevated the eventual nominee five times.

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