The GOP is LOOKING GOOD in 8 Pivotal Senate Races

Yesterday we updated our Senate forecast and reported that the chances of a Republican takeover had improved from our initial forecast. Assessments of the 36 individual elections and our model’s estimates of the probabilities of the parties winning and losing each one of them underlie the prediction. We can examine the 36 elections to map out the most likely path to a Republican takeover and first did so on Feb. 6. With this update, although we see a very similar road to Republican control, there are some interesting amendments and elaborations.

First, a quick refresher. The Republicans hold 30 seats that are not up for election in 2014. To gain control of the Senate, they need 51 because Vice President Biden would cast tie-breaking votes in a 50-50 Senate. Thus the Republicans need to win 21 (of the 36) elections this fall. 

Last time we identified 17 elections where the Republicans chances of winning were quite good. According to our model updates, those same 17 elections still appear to be very good bets for the Republicans. (I will discuss one of them, Georgia, below, because some analysts see this race as notably more competitive than we do.)

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If the Republicans win those 17, then they need four more to take control of the Senate. Last time we identified the elections in Alaska, Iowa, Louisiana, and Montana as the next most likely possibilities for the Republicans, with the elections in Michigan, Arkansas, and North Carolina as the next three. This time, the top four elections to put the Republicans over the top appear to be Montana, Louisiana, Iowa, and Michigan, followed by Arkansas, Alaska, and a tie between Colorado and New Hampshire. 

Here are state-by-state rundown:

Michigan. In our updated predictions, Michigan enters the top four because our model now takes account of “candidate quality.” While the Democratic nominee will likely be Rep. Gary Peters, the Republicans also have an apparently strong candidate with former secretary of state Terry Lynn Land. In combination with the seat being open and the state being only modestly more Democratic in presidential voting than the nation overall, our model currently gives the Republicans a 58 percent chance of winning this seat.

Read the rest of the story HERE.

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