Friday, April 4, 2014

Democrats Midterm Prospects are Fading along with the Support of Whites, Millennials and Independents

Early national polling is supporting the prevailing view in Washington that Democrats are in trouble in the 2014 midterm elections. While Democrats are more popular than the GOP among the general public, the party faces a number of challenges in November.
First, there's an enthusiasm gap. Typically, but not always, Republicans vote at higher rates than Democrats in congressional elections. And at this early stage, that seems likely to happen again, perhaps at an even greater rate than usual. One telling indicator came in December, when the Pew Research Center found that Republicans are much more optimistic about their party's electoral prospects than Democrats are. Fully 55% of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters expect the GOP to do better in 2014 than the party has in recent elections, while only 43% of Democrats expressed such confidence.
Recent national surveys of registered voters by the Pew Research Center, the Washington Post/ABC News and the New York Times/CBS News show congressional voting intentions about even. But if these polls were narrowed to likely voters, they might find a strong GOP lead. It could be a replay of 2010, when Pew's final congressional poll of registered voters showed a one-point Democratic lead, but among likely voters Republicans held a six-point advantage, which was about their margin of victory when they retook the House.
Another challenge for Democrats is winning independents, who typically decide election outcomes. Democrats trail Republicans among independents by 38% to 44%, according to Pew's February survey. Democrats also lost the independent vote in the 2012 presidential election, 45% to 50%, according to national exit polls. In other words, President Obama owed his re-election victory to his base. This is an important indication of how lagging Democratic engagement could sway 2014.
A third challenge is the white vote. While winning whites is not as essential as it once was, they will still make up close to 80% of this year's midterm electorate. Democrats have consistently lost the white vote in recent decades, even in the 2006 congressional landslide. The early polls in 2014 don't show a changing tide. The Pew Research Center's February poll showed the GOP with a 53% to 38% advantage in congressional voting intentions among white registered voters.
Read the rest of the story HERE.

If you like what you see, please "Like" us on Facebook either here or here. Please follow us on Twitter here.


4 comments:

Unknown said...

Hello ---People---Do you understand---WHAT IS GOING ON??--Are you a citizen??-----THen Think About This------All It Takes for EVIL to WIN is for Good People to do NOTHING!---I remind you that WE all must make an effort to Call or email our elected officials---and TV News stations--MSNBC-CBS--Fox--Drudge--etc****** EVERY DAY ****as often as possible about your concerns---I have a lot of concerns but right now it's that we have possible criminales in our GOVERNMENT who are walking around FREE---All the bad things they do get SWEPT UNDER THE RUG---and the rug is getting TOO LUMPY TO WALK ON WITH-OUT FALLING ON YOUR FACE---America is now falling on it's FACE-----We have the means to harrass these people into them taking and TAKING ACTION about ALL these SCANDALS--LETS DO IT-----Lets swamp them every day with EMAILS and FACE BOOK and TWITTER---until they DO SOMETHING! ! ! ==
They are investigating Christi ---AND THATS A GOOD THING--NOW WE NEED THEM TO INVESTIGATE ALL THE OTHERS---J/J

Unknown said...

Please--WAKE UP---

Anonymous said...

Jersey Jim, it took more than four years, but the economy last month finally recovered all the millions of private-sector jobs lost in the Republican downturn. Everything will be fine. Calm down, my friend.

Anonymous said...

Jersey Jim is right! In a sane world, there WOULD be enough outrage to make a difference. Sadly, most Americans have no idea what their government is doing, nor do they care.

-Martha