Obamacare: Sign-ups of Young Adults won't even reach Half of the need by the March 31 Deadline

Young adult enrollment in the ObamaCare exchanges will likely be only half of the first-year target at best, a bad sign for the health reform's long-term health. 

While sign-ups may pick up in the next few weeks, don't expect a huge last-minute surge to make up the difference. The exchange plans' high deductibles and loose individual mandate enforcement work against hopes that young, healthy Americans will meet the March 31 deadline.

Data through five months of the open-enrollment period show that slightly fewer than 10% of eligible 18- to 34-year-olds have signed up for coverage. Among young men, roughly 1 in 12 has signed up. 

The Kaiser Family Foundation puts the ObamaCare-eligible population at 28.6 million, with 40%, or about 11.4 million, in the 18-to-34 age group. 

Compared to the size of the potential market, the first-year target of 7 million enrollees, including about 2.8 million young adults, was relatively modest. 

Yet it's now clear that the initial target is well out of reach. The Avalere Health consultancy projected that sign-ups — paid and unpaid — will end March at around 5.4 million. 

Through February, not quite 1.1 million young adults had selected an exchange plan. Among this group, the male-female breakdown was about 45% vs. 55%. That matters because women at child-rearing age are more likely to run up big medical bills.

In February, 268,000 18- to 34-year-olds signed up, so a decent upsurge in March could lift the total close to 1.4 million. But that's before winnowing out the people who don't pay. 

Anecdotal reports from a handful of states and large insurers now point to a paid rate of about 85%, possibly lower. 

While that could improve before the March 31 deadline, there's reason to suspect that the paid percentage might lag among young adults, since they are showing more reticence about signing up in the first place. 

Once the unpaid group is subtracted, it appears likely that young-adult enrollees will fall at least 50% below the first-year target The White House had initially set that target at 2.7 million. Differing only slightly, Kaiser Family Foundation researchers have said that 40% of enrollees should be 18- to 34-year-olds to match their representation in the eligible population.

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