Saturday, February 8, 2014

2016 GOP Power Rankings (2-8-14)


It's probably far too early for this, but here goes. It's not necessarily a reflection of current polls, since they tend to be skewed toward candidates with high name recognition at this stage.

Just my opinion......

1. Ted Cruz. Far and away the best debater in the field. Primary voters are mostly made up of the activist wing of the GOP, which tends to be more conservative than the party as a whole. He would need to go around the establishment wing of the party, and speak directly to the voters, because he doesn't have a lot of support in the Beltway.

1. (Tie) Jeb Bush. If Jeb runs, he would undoubtedly be the establishment choice, which means that the long knives would be out for anyone who dares to get in his way. The biggest hurdle he would have to overcome is his last name.

3. Marco Rubio. Marco slides into the number two spot if Jeb stays out for two reasons. One, he would likely carry the establishment mantle for the party. Two, he's an immensely talented politician. The biggest hurdle he would face is his abrupt reversal on amnesty for illegal aliens. He would likely have to give up his Senate seat to run due to Florida election laws, which prohibit a candidate from appearing on the ballot more than once.

4. Scott Walker. Walker has a decent record as Wisconsin's Governor, but lacks name recognition. At a minimum, he needs to be taken seriously if he runs.

5. Rand Paul. Some would argue he should be a couple pegs higher, but I just don't see it. His last name is a hindrance, in my view. Like Rubio, he would have to give up his Senate seat to run.

6. Paul Ryan. He's probably not going to run, but would need to be taken seriously if he did. His best hope would be if Bush and Rubio were absent from the field. His recent amnesty push would be problematic.

7. Mike Huckabee. Not running. Next.

8. Chris Christie. I don't want to completely write him off, but it's not looking good.

9. Rick Perry. He might not make it past the Iowa Caucus, but is a formidable fundraiser.

10. Rick Santorum. Rick might as well stay home, but since he clearly wants to run, he warrants inclusion on this list.


12 comments:

BOSMAN said...

As of 'today' (Not my preferences):

1. Paul Ryan
2. Rand Paul
3. Marco Rubio
4. Ted Cruz
5. Mike Huckabee
6. Chris Christie
7. Jeb Bush
8. scott walker
9. Sarah Palin
10. Rick Perry

BTW, If Romney announced a 16 run (HE WON'T) he'd be in first place...AT THIS POINT.

Right Wingnut said...

Bosman, I think the difference is that I'm projecting how I think it will end up. Those who are not likely to run are further down the list. If both Cruz and Jeb run, I believe it will come down to those two in the end.

Right Wingnut said...

With one exception....I don't think Rubio will run if Jeb does. I have Rubio at number 3, because he would be the establishment pick if Jeb wasn't in the race.

Anonymous said...

Dream, dream dream, RW. Might as well while you still can. :-)

-Martha

Anonymous said...

I will quibble with you a little. Not that it matters, and not that I care. (I care a lot less actually than my bothering to even post this would suggest.)

Ted Cruz ain't first, no way. I do admit he falls somewhere around 4-5 simply because he deliberately gets his face out there a lot. In the long haul, he isn't going to make it for reasons I have already mentioned many times and you don't want me to repeat.

Christie ain't 8, and certainly is not, considering the other people you have above him. He's coming off the scandal, and if he keeps it clean, he's going to move back up in the polls. I feel that he will be well above Bush in a few months if nothing new comes out. Big if maybe.

-Martha

RomneyMan said...

Good current analysis rwn.

I'd second most of your placings.

You commented before- correctly, that the fact that as JEB is virtually a 100% lock for FL if he runs, in itself makes him a monster. Nightmare of a bore fest and a waste of 4 years of my life he was the nom imo

And you're correct that essentially Jeb and the Savior don't run together. SO the Savior slips into #2 if Jeb does us all a favour and don't run.

If Ryan runs, he would be -unfortunately- higher than 6th imo

Right Wingnut said...

RM, the only reason I have Ryan at #6 is that I haven't seen any indication that he intends to run. Otherwise, I'd bump up to #4.

Right Wingnut said...

Martha, if we see evidence that Christie can put bridgegate behind him, he may warrant a higher position. At this time, it doesn't look promising.

Anonymous said...

Paul Ryan 48%
Hillary Clinton 43%

Rand Paul 47%
Hillary Clinton 43%

Ted Cruz 43%
Hillary Clinton 44%

Chris Christie 42%
Hillary Clinton 43%.

The new Quinnipiac poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2004

Anonymous said...

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-presidential-ratings-update-nothing-but-questions-on-the-republican-side/

Anonymous said...

We have a new front runner, Huckabee leads the RCP average:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

-mac

Anonymous said...

Hi mac!

-Martha