2014 Midterm Races will test Tea Party Strength

The 2014 primary election season that kicks off March 4 may serve as a test of the Tea Party's ability to shape the Republican Party. 

The movement that became a potent political force in the 2010 elections and helped Republicans retake control of the House is at war with the Republican establishment and taking on GOP incumbents in a handful of key races.

All but one of six Tea Party challenges to Senate Republican incumbents this year are in states where a primary victory is tantamount to a general election victory. In these heavily Republican states — in theory — a Tea Party candidate should have the best opportunity for victory because primaries tend to see lower turnout races populated by the party's base.

"If they (Tea Party candidates) don't do well, if they can't do it in red states against incumbents, then how effective are they really?" said Jennifer Duffy, a non-partisan election analyst for The Cook Political Report. "I think this is going to be a pretty decisive cycle in terms of that question. 

Despite the 2010 Tea Party wave and historically low congressional approval ratings, incumbents remain heavily favored to win primary battles. Nearly 99% of incumbents won their primaries in 2012.

The GOP campaign committees, particularly the National Republican Senatorial Committee, have pressed incumbents to prepare themselves for primary opponents while warning outside GOP consultants not to work with challengers. House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, has publicly waged battle with outside conservative groups, such as the Club for Growth, that fuel many of these 2014 incumbent challengers. He accused the groups in December of "using the American people for their own goals."

The establishment has wised up to the threat. "All of our incumbents are coming back," said Rob Collins, executive director of the NRSC. "They have not only built the best campaigns to get out their message, they have raised the resources they need, and their votes and their legislative record reflect the majority of the Republican electorate in their states."

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