WAPO The Fix: 2016 GOP Rankings

Below are our rankings of the 10 candidates with the best chance of winding up as the Republican presidential nominee. While this should go without saying, making predictions about 2016 in 2013 is something short of purely scientific. These rankings can and almost certainly will change regularly in the coming months and years. The No. 1 ranked candidate is considered the most likely to wind up as the party’s nominee as of today:

10. Mike Pence: The Indiana governor is flying way under the radar at the moment but, as Matt Lewis argued in a recent piece for the Daily Caller, he has many of the makings of a potential 2016 dark horse: social and fiscal conservatives like him, he’s a charismatic communicator, and, perhaps most importantly, he doesn’t work in Washington, D.C. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. John Kasich: The Ohio governor’s poll numbers have recovered remarkably well from his first few years in office, and he now looks like a favorite against much-touted Democratic nominee Ed FitzGerald. If Kasich wins in 2014, he has a case to make as a swing-state Midwestern governor who previously served as the chairman of the House Budget Committee and who ran (albeit briefly) for president in 2000. One big question: Does Kasich really want to undertake another national bid? (Previous ranking: 6)

8. Bobby Jindal: We believe that Jindal’s stock was probably a bit too high a year ago and is now a bit too low. His numbers in Louisiana still aren’t great, but they are better than earlier this year. Jindal’s decision to reject Medicaid expansion from Obamacare will be a feather in his cap among conservative presidential primary voters, and his reform message is potentially powerful, too. (Previous ranking: 9)

7. Scott Walker: The Wisconsin governor may have a bit more of a race on his hands then he originally thought with wealthy former Trek executive Mary Burke running for the Democratic nomination. And we hear from reliable Wisconsin sources that Rep. Paul Ryan is more interested in running than we believed. If Ryan runs, it’s hard to see Walker also getting in. (Previous ranking: 4)

6. Ted Cruz: Cruz is the biggest attraction among rank-and-file Republicans at the moment. He evokes genuine passion among the base — and that’s not ever to be underestimated. But, it’s also worth remembering that Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann held that title once upon a time, and she held it much closer to the time when voters were actually set to cast votes for president. Buzz is valuable, but without some substance beneath it, it’s not enough. (Previous ranking: 7)

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