Friday, November 9, 2012

7 Million Fewer White Voters Than 2008?

That's what Sean Trende from Real Clear Politics has concluded. As we speak, Mitt Romney has 58,237,566 total votes. In 2008, the Republican ticket garnered 59,934,814 votes, or nearly 1.7 million more than Romney-Ryan. Yes, there are still some votes to be counted, but very few at the time of this posting. See for yourself here. All but a handful of states have reported 100% of the vote.

Included in those 58 million Romney votes are likely millions who voted for Obama in 2008. According to exit polls, Romney won the Independent vote by 5 percentage points. In 2008, Obama won this demographic by 7.

This data points to several million 2008 McCain-Palin voters staying home on Tuesday - not just the 1.7 million difference in the raw vote totals. Trende has prepared the following graph to illustrate who the "missing" voters are.


Assuming the above data is correct, Romney-Ryan did not lose because of Latinos, black voters, Chis Christie, Todd Akin, Richard Mourdock, Hurricane Sandy, or any of the other scapegoats who have been identified by Romney loyalists, and by many in the Republican Party who are will soon be urging Republicans to moderate in advance of future elections. Romney-Ryan lost because the base did not turn out. Period.

Cross posted at Redstate

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19 comments:

cimbri said...

It just proves what total idiots they really are. I hope Obama reams them good.

Anonymous said...

Wow! If that's true, they just assumed the country could be saved by 2016--after an additional for years of Obama where he doesn't have to worry about reelection.

That was very foolish. I find it amazing these voters decided this was the election to rebel...??? Rebel against Mitt Romney but not rebel against George W Bush??? Amazing!

Mitt was way more competent than any other candidate in the last 30 years, not to mention decent and honorable. And rebel against him, in the election of all our lifetimes, what lousy timing.

Words fail.

BOSMAN said...

Thanks for clearing this up.

They showed the Republican Party alright.

Romney failed to show them America would be better off with him than Obama.....IS THAT IT?

If Obama wasn't enough incentive to get these brain dead, self centered, bunch of 5hit heads out to vote, then lets hope...no...LETS PRAY...that any job losses, mortgage defaults, or other economic calamities that arise over the next 4 years, begins and ends with them.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bos, tell us how you really feel.

Anonymous said...

Maybe because so many boys are all in the M.E. fighting to save this country!

Their votes were not counted!

Anonymous said...

Do you know what % of Whites voted for Obama?

Looking at those figures, my guess is 40+ million.

What did Obama do to appeal to them to get their votes? Probably the same that he did for blacks, Hispanics, and others.

Ever think that maybe the problem is that there are more of them (takers) than us (makers)?

cimbri said...

I can kind of understand Ron Paul type libertarians staying home. Romney was surrounded by a few neocon foreign policy people, and RP's people were always complaining about delegates and so on.

But social cons, of which I am at least partly one, had no reason to stay home. The head of the Southern Baptist org, endorsed Romney. Mormonism was removed as a cult on their list. Billy Graham endorsed him. Ryan, a strong social con was placed as VP nominee, and went way out on a limb in the debate about life and abortion. I'm just mystified as to what else this guy was supposed to do to win support.

My suspicions are that Rush Limbaugh, and others who declared that Romney was not a conservative early on, made a lasting impression, and many people had vowed they would never vote for a moderate(as defined by Rush, Levin, et al). This same Rush L who labeled Fluke a slut publicly and caused us more problems with women. These talk radio guys have outlived their usefulness.

ILikeSex2ButOnlyOnMyDime said...

Cimbri,

Limbaugh is a pig. Biu he was right about Fluke.

If a slut isn't someone who goes before Congress and say's, "I like sex" and then goes on to explain she can't afford the amount of contraceptives needed to satisfy her desires and wants tax payers to pay for them, then what is?

Lionhead said...

My thoughts are:
The primary campaign went on for too long blooding up the candidates & splintering the base voters;
Romney crushed his opponents in the primary, but did not follow through in the general election in the same style;
Romney peaked at about the right time with the right message on the economy & jobs, but just didn't get folks out & off their couches;
Ron Paul folks likely stayed home disillusioned & disenfranchised. Paul should have been given face time at the Tampa Convention & an acknowledgement for his efforts. Obviously, those votes never even went to Gary Johnson, so they stayed home also.
The majority of white Obama voters want the free healthcare, even though it's not free and likely will be rationed. They prized that freebie more than their individual liberty & freedom.
Santa Claus is becoming a very powerful political figure in the US.

Right Wingnut said...

LH, I think he should have carpet bombed Obama like he did to Gingrich, but that's just me.

He showed signs of it in the first debate. In fact, I thought is was the biggest ass kicking I had ever seen in a presidential debate. The second debate was a draw at best. In the third debate, he went soft, and decided to play kissy face with Obama. I'll never understand that strategy.

Right Wingnut said...

Bosman,

I know your style, and I'm sure you agree with my comment above.

Right Wingnut said...

I've never been a fan of a strategy of winning the "middle." Obama didn't try that. All you had to do was watch the DNC convention to see that. Presidential elections are won with base turnout. The elusive "undecideds" probably don't even show up to vote in most cases.

Anonymous said...

Rush, Levin, Ingraham,and Beck deserve a lot of the blame for the loss. They pounced Mitt--everyday-- for at least a year. trying to convince their audience that Mitt was establishment and a phony. And that just shows what great judges of character they are, since the truth about Mitt's character couldn't be more different than they proclaimed.

What are the stay at home voters going to do in 2016? That's the year a true establishment guy, Jeb Bush, set his eyes on. Is that when the stay at home voters will decide the election is too important to sit out and vote Bush...when they could have voted for Romney four years before.

Right is left, left is right, right is wrong, wrong is right. I really hope these are the end times, because it's the only thing that would explain this logic, plus I don't want to know what's in the near future with Obama at the throne.




Right Wingnut said...

Jeb Bush....now, there's a guy who could actually get me to stay home. Same with Christie.

leighrow said...

Anonymous-you are so very right. Laura Ingrahm has some nerve ripping on Romney. Laura and the conservative pundits provided great material for the Democrats.

RW is right. I would stay home if Christie or Bush ran. My top 3 pics would be Rubio,Jindahl and Rand Paul.

Ohio JOE said...

"My top 3 pics would be Rubio,Jindahl and Rand Paul." We finally almost agree.

To the issue at hand, the ironic thing is that despite the fact that Mr. Romney lost my precinct and county big time in the primary, he won my county where other GOP candidates lost. Our County chairman was actually co-operative with non-Romneyites and Ironically, the non-Romneyites were the ones to go door to door and drive voters to the polls and put Mr. Romney over the top in my county. In at least 2 neighboring counties, the Romney establishment did not want non-Romney Republicans on the campaign, as a result, Mr. Romney won those counties, but not by much.

Quasi-establishment candidates might be able to win, but they cannot win by going it alone. Looking back, the terrible GOP convention was in part responsible for the loss. In the end, it is difficult to blame Mr. Romney personally because he did well in the debates and ran a decent campaign, but the party establishment gave him a lot of bad advice.

Yes, Ohio is not a deep blue state, but it is amazing in some regards that Mr. Romney only lost Ohio by a few points. The clowns in our state capital and those running the national show had no clue what goes on at the county level. They may have tried to find out, but it was too late.

RomneyMan said...

I agree that it is disgusting and pathetic that a potential 7 million stayed at home, and it's now pretty much established that at least 3 million from Mccain's run stayed home. How could 3 million form Mccain's 08 run not turn up after 4 years of OB? Do they think things are great after 4 years of OB so chose not to vote? Pathetic.
Romney losing is nothing less than a travesty of the country- and indeed the world.

RomneyMan said...

(meant 'for' the country abouve, not 'of' the country)

Anonymous said...

Run a conservative like Reagan and we will win. Look at the Senate seats we have won without the RINO establishment- Rubio, Cruz,Lee etc all candidates the establishment didn't support.... Now all of a sudden Rubio is their guy!