Friday, August 17, 2012

If Obama wins: My predictions

What if Obama wins? As conservatives in the midst of an election campaign, we don’t really think much about this. It makes sense, given that we’re supposed to keep our sights on the goal; we shouldn’t worry about losing, instead we just go for the win.
So… why this post? Well, part of the reason is because if these predictions do indeed come true, I get bragging rights. And, of course, mostly the reason why I’m writing this post is because I as a political junkie can’t stop myself from analyzing everything between heaven and earth.
So here it is: My prediction for what will happen if, God forbid, Barack Obama is re-elected on November 6.
1) Stocks will rally – at first. It’s not unusual to see stocks rally after an election; it won’t be because Obama has been re-elected, it will be because at least investors will know what to expect. After the election, there will be certainty: Will there be more stimulus? Will Obamacare stand? Certainty beats uncertainty; if investors know the answer to these questions (and they will after the election), they know where to place their money. A temporary stock rally, lasting a week or so, doesn’t seem unreasonable. Democrats will use this to claim that Obama’s re-election is the best thing since sliced bread; but of course, this rally will only be temporary and investors will soon remember why they didn’t like Obama in the first place.
2) SmallCap will suffer. If Obama wins, small companies will suffer due to Obamacare. Hence, SmallCap (small, public companies – small compared to other public companies that is) is likely to see a dive after the election and it’s hard to see when they might recover. While big companies will be hurt by Obamacare as well, essentially the smaller you are the harder it will be to deal with the extra costs. So, from a personal perspective: If you have money in mutual funds that invest heavily in SmallCap, this might be an excellent time to withdraw them and place them somewhere else (may I suggest gold?).
3) Israel will strike Iran. This is one of the more serious consequences. I’m not saying this will happen immediately after the election, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. New reports indicate Iran is much further gone  than previously thought in the development of a nuclear bomb. Not only that, but the underground facilities are moving further and further underground, making them harder to strike. I personally think Israel will wait for the election results before doing anything, as they obviously hope that Romney will be elected (President Romney will most likely help Israel somehow; I can’t see Obama doing anything else than standing on the sidelines).
Will it work? I don’t know. Doing a surgical strike against underground nuclear facilities is a lot easier said than done. Would Iran retaliate? I’m pretty sure that had Iran known that Israel was going to strike against them, they would never have started their nuclear program in the first place. But if Israel strikes, it will be too late to turn back. I doubt Iran can just sit by and watch it happen. They will have to retaliate, or have someone do it for them (ie Hamas).
4) A new dangerous precedent will be set. Think about it: If Obama wins, it will almost only be due to his personal likeability. It won’t be because of his achievements (which aren’t very popular in the first place), it will be due to his charm and looks. So what does this tell future presidential aspirants? Not only can looks get you elected; they can get you re-elected as well! So why focus on developing coherent political ideas and programs – all you need is a spray tan and some botox! Instead of “The economy, stupid”, in the future we will talk about “The teeth, stupid”, “The cleavage, stupid” and “The hair, stupid”. Expect to see more political candidates with good looks but empty heads. Hey, it worked for Obama, didn’t it?
5) Unemployment will rise – for real. The past few months we’ve seen unemployment go up with 0.2 % – that’s serious enough, and is sure to trouble Obama come November. But if he wins, that’s when the real panic starts among America’s employers. Obama has already promised to be more “flexible” in his second term (remember that conversation he had with Medvedev?), and that can only mean bad news for job creators. I’m not sure if the number of jobs created will go negative, but it sure won’t keep up with the population growth. It would not surprise me at all to see unemployment in double digits by the end of Obama’s second term, if he gets one.
Those are my five predictions. I’d like to hear from commenters and the other posters at this site; what do you think will happen if Obama wins a second term?
Thanks for reading.


John said...

Not sure how to fix the color problem :(

Rob said...

newark hawk said...

According to professional pundit & pollster Dick Morris, Romney will defeat Obama by at least 10 points.

Personally, I think it will be closer to a 15-point margin of victory.

Here's why:

1 - Mainstream media polls vastly over-sample Democrat voters and under-sample Republican voters.

2 - Historically, undecided voters end up voting for the challenger, not the incumbent, in presidential elections.

3 - Romney will receive significant polling boosts from his VP selection, the GOP convention in Tampa, the debates and the television ad wars.

Call me crazy, but that's my prediction.

MrX said...

I think your suggestions are accurate. #1 & #2 are a given. The stock market rallies on almost anything that seems like good news these days and then sinks immediately back. So I'm predicting, not a market crash exactly, but a significant downturn after the rally and excessive volatility unlike what we've seen so far. Not 2009, but in that direction.

#3 would change the world. What the West doesn't understand (what Obama doesn't understand) is that those that control Iran don't care about their own future. They will risk everything. So mutual defense doesn't work with them. This is really the unpredictable nature of Iran having the bomb.

I don't really agree with #4 in that I think politics has always been like that. I used to be a lib (DOH!) and Bush was seriously awful and hated. People were saying the same thing as you are now and this is how Obama got in BTW. Also, as a lib, I had to go through two Bushes. Try going through two Obama's and then we'll talk.

#5 would be a certainty. Obama will launch Obamacare and a bigger stimulus than ever before if he can. Jobs have to suffer under those conditions.

John said...

MrX, thanks for your comment. About #4, this is obviously not a trend Obama started, but one that he can intensify. I mean, when political scientists 20 years from now study this decade and ask themselves why people re-elected Obama, what other answer will there be other than his charm and charisma?

newark hawk, I wish I could be that optimistic. I think it will be very close personally, and maybe it will be decided by how many jobs are created in september/october.

Anonymous said...

Newark Hawk, 15 pt. victory over Obama? You rwingers are wrong big time, ALL the time.