Monday, April 16, 2012

Without Rubio On The Ticket, Romney Cannot Win

Pew Research has done a great job of summarizing the growing influence of the Hispanic vote.

The bad news (from an electoral standpoint) is that this heavily Democrat leaning segment of the electorate is growing at an alarming rate in several swing states.

The good news is that Bush proved that a downward trend of Hispanic support for Republican candidates can be reversed.

Here is some pertinent data based on national and state exit polls:

  • In 2008, Obama won the Hispanic vote 67-31.
  • In 2004, Bush carried 40% of the Hispanic vote - a modern high for a Republican presidential candidate.
  • In 1996, Dole captured only 21% of the Hispanic vote.
  • Nationwide, 9% of the electorate was Hispanic in 2008 - up 1% from 2004.
  • The 2008 Hispanic vote was up significantly from 2004 in the swing states of New Mexico (9%), Colorado (5%) and Nevada (5%).
  • In Florida, Obama carried 57% of the Hispanic vote in 2008, despite the fact that 56% voted for Bush in 2004.

Despite receiving a historically high level of Hispanic support in 2004, Bush won the election by the skin of his teeth. Since McCain wasn't able to even come close to those levels despite his amnesty push preceding the election, pandering doesn't seem to be all that effective.

Looking at the data, I'm not sure how a Republican can win a general election without 35-40% of the Hispanic vote. Republican strategists know this all too well. I'll go on record right now predicting that Marco Rubio will be asked to be the VP nominee. Whether or not he will accept is another story altogether.

Here is what he had to say on Friday:
"I’m not going to be the vice president. I’m not," he said, the second such announcement this month.

"Marco has said repeatedly that he's not going to be vice president, and all of the speculation in the world isn't going to change that fact,” senior Rubio advisor Todd Harris added.
There are two possibilities. He either sincerely doesn't want the job, or he's trying to delay the inevitable smear campaign from the left. If it's the former, the campaign to remove Obama will be a tough road. According to a recent Fox News poll, Obama currently leads Romney 70-14 among Hispanics. If Rubio doesn't accept, it will likely ensure another four years of Obama.

Cross Posted at Redstate



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59 comments:

Anonymous said...

RW and Redstate are intent on making their own predictions come true. Romney can win with Ryan, Rubio, Portman, Ayotte, etc. Heck. Romney would even win with Pawlenty. Every one is afraid of the Obama gauntlet of money and MSM. Not to worry. This election will be a repeat of 2010. The nation is fed up with debt and mindless spending. The change will happen. It will the the hope and change we've been waiting for.

Right Wingnut said...

Anon,

I didn't see your solution for Romney to get the needed 35-40% of the Hispanic vote he needs to have a chance of winning. The numbers don't lie.

Right Wingnut said...

By the way, since Bush got 40%, and barely won despite a massive GOTV operation among the base, it will likely need to be closer to 40% than 35%.

cimbri said...

Well, we could put some blue states in play if you guys would ease up on your merciless purity tests for Mitt.

Right Wingnut said...

cimbri,

If he can't win Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia and Arizona, you coan forget about blue states. He's not going to lose Florida, and win Minnesota.

cimbri said...

If you're pushing Rubio, then you must know that Rubio has to offer up something to swing these voters over to us. What will he offer them?

Anonymous said...

I deplore "identity politics." (To appeal to Hispanics, we must nominate a Hispanic; to appeal to women, we must nominate a woman.) PLEASE. This tactic is absolutely anti-conservative.

Rubio has serious financial baggage that he must put behind him over the next few years, if he wants to have a national political future. He's way too young and green right now to be VP (ditto Paul Ryan).

The cynic in me says that RWN knows this and wants to pair Romney with a loser of a VP candidate. Another Palin, who will be destroyed by the MSM because he's not ready for the national stage.

Right Wingnut said...

Anon,

I am of the opinion that Romney will likely lose for a whole host of reasons. Putting that all aside...he can't win with less than 35-40% of the Hispanic vote. What, if anything, have you seen to give you confidence that he's capable of doing that? please be specific.

cimbri said...

RW, so are you willing as a conservative to support Romney/Rubio offering up immigration reform? Rubio would be considered a sellout if he doesn't offer something. Let's take your argument to its logical conclusion.

Anonymous said...

If you've already concluded that Romney "will likely lose for a host of reasons," there's nothing more to discuss. Have a nice day.

Right Wingnut said...

cimbri,

I'm not endorsing the ticket. Just looking at this from an unbiased point of view. The numbers are compelling.

cimbri said...

Romney can offer more work visas for farm work and some other things as well. He really doesn't need Rubio for that. I don't think it will take much effort to get the latino vote up, but we do need the social cons to not knife us in the back while our side makes these proposals.

Anonymous said...

"Just looking at this from an unbiased point of view." Mamma Mia! Was I born yesterday?

Right Wingnut said...

Anon,

Amid all of your insults, I still haven't seen your solution for Mitt to attract 40% of the Hispanic vote.

Have a nice day.

Graham said...

Didn't even have to scroll down to know this was an RW post.

You've been wrong this entire election. Get over it.

Anonymous said...

RightWingnut, stop it. You're killing the GOP. You even predicted RomneyCare going to end the Romney2012. Look where we at now. RightWingNut Isn't Working. :(

Right Wingnut said...

Let's see....

Romney needs Florida. CHECK

Romney needs Hispanics CHECK

Romney needs a VP candidate that will rally the base CHECK

The absence of any one of the above will result in four more years of Obama.

Paul Ryan gets Mitt one of the three. Portman gets him none of them.

Anonymous said...

Rubio has new role. Its not VP for sure. Its the GOP Dream Act. Expect more from Rubio and Romney pushing this as GOP's platform in the future.

Joel2012 said...

RW,

Anyone can make the numbers work anyway they choose. I would not base my analysis solely on the numbers. The biggest flaw in your assumptions is the initial statement, Romney can't win without the Hispanic vote. While a compelling argument with some historic data to strengthen your position, I submit to you we are in an exceptionally new political climate where all the traditional ways to forecast an election are no longer applicable. Romney can win on the sheer number of individuals who are no longer supporting the incumbent, including ones from his own party. It is possible these numbers will also be as huge could in fact cancel out the real or imagined advantage the incumbent may have with the sector of voters you are referencing. I have no real issue with your analysis, I disagree with it, plain and simple. I have also provided you with a dynamic for which you have no historical data to rely upon in your analysis. You cannot measure it, but is is going to impact this election. And besides, you assume too much when you concede the vote to the incumbent because of issues regarding immigration and entitlements. Other issues may be more important in the final analysis. It will be an interesting general election.

Pablo said...

RW,

I like the post, although I have some different ideas about the GOP and the Latino Vote. I will post sometime tomorrow in response to your post. But I think you are dead on on the GOP's need to get serious about Latino voters.

Terrye said...

Red State? Of course...that would be the same people who told us that Sharon Angle and Christine O'Donnell were sure winners.

I am sorry, I really like Rubio, but I don't think he is going to make or break the ticket this time around. I really don't...and I am not sure he even wants to run at this point, if ever.

Besides all that, there is no reason to believe that a conservative hispanic of Cuban descent would get the latino vote in all 50 states anyway. And if it was that important to Republicans to get the hispanic vote then someone should have told people like Rush and Tancredo and Malkin to shut up a long time ago.

BTW, Tom Tancredo endorsed Rick Santorum. How much help would that have been in getting the hispanic vote?

Terrye said...

RWN...yes George Bush did get 40% of the Latino vote...but then again we had to listen to people like Michelle Malkin and other rightie bloggers and pundits call him Jorge Busho or something stupid like that for his trouble too...his outreach to hispanics was dismissed as pandering. I don't think it was pandering at all. His stand on issues like immigration was plain when he was Governor of Texas, he never lied to anyone or mislead them. So yes, Bush did do better and hopefully, the economy will help the next Republican do better as well.

Right Wingnut said...

Joel,

Let's take a look at some demographics:

Groups that favor Democrats:

Hispanics (9% of vote)

Jews (3% of vote)

African Americans (12% of vote)

Women (53% of vote)

Asian Americans (3% of vote)

*Numbers are rough estimates bases on a mix of exit polls, and are for illustration purposes only.

Your turn. Please compile a similar list for Republicans.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Right Wingnut said...

Anon @ XX:24,

I deleted your childish comment. Come back when you have something of substance to add to the debate.

Anonymous said...

Hispanics, Jews, African Americans, Women, Asian Americans. Which of these things do not belong together?
Nobody ever talks about the male vote or the white vote.
Romney is far ahead in both of these categories. Also, Jews may come out big for Romney. Take a look at what happen NY9.
(http://pjmedia.com/blog/gop-could-carry-largest-percentage-of-jewish-vote-since-eisenhower-in-2012/)
and
(http://prospect.org/article/mitt-romney-catnip-jews).

As for the woman vote, the Dems just squandered their perceived advantage with women with the Hilary Rosen incident.

Lastly, sure blacks will vote in mass for Obama, but Hispanics are different. They have an entirely different history and view on life. They are not in the tank for Obama.

Doug NYC GOP said...

By his own admission (and sore loser attitude) RWN has decided Romney will lose for a "whole host of reasons" - so we can now expect a endless series of posts about all of Romney's weaknesses with the entire electorate.

Of course these prediction come after a season in which all the fanciful dreams of political pundits failed to materialize:

No white knight
No brokered convention
No contested convention
No race lasting till the end of June

It seems the more time spent blowing up all the dangers Romney has to overcome turn out to be less than originally though when reality finally knocks on the door and enters the scene.

We have to take Obama's winning margins from 2008 with a big helping of salt this time. Last time out he was an unknown quantity and a dynamic force, so it's natural to see him with huge margins. This time he hs a record and a dismal one at that.

Romney did very well with Latinos in Fla and all this hysteria about not being competitive is a media driven distraction. At the end of the day, Hispanic vots have a conservative values core and will vote for economic oppurtunity. We may not carry them. But we will get our competitive share.

The simple act of putting Rubio on the ticket will not be the deciding factor on Romney winning or losing the WH, try as RWN might to throw cold water at every turn.

It's funny how pissed off he is Roey is the nominee considering he voted for him enthusiastically in 2008.

He reminds me of a disgruntled former PA senator.

Right Wingnut said...

Doug,

Chill out pal. I'm not ready to become a Romney cheerleader at this time.

I won't be posting the hit pieces that I used to, but I still want to stay in the game in some capacity.

I will be focused on strategy and demographic analysis for the now. You're not required to read it. RS has plenty of Romney puff pieces to occupy your time.

Anonymous said...

it's about electoral votes, romney needs someone from a swing state that will pull in independent voters and disfanchised dems. Marco has financial problems that would be a distraction. Marco is not the choice. It will be Ryan, Portman or McDonnel.

Right Wingnut said...

One more constituency that heavily favors Dems...

Union households: 21-24% of the electorate, depending on the poll.

Doug NYC GOP said...

I am chill my friend, that was my point. So much doom and gloom was written during the primary season and it ended with a a bit of a whimper.

I have said all along this will be a tight race till the end. Rubio may help in some quarters and hurt in others. I like him and he could be a good pick, just not the only pick.

Another point to remember is a VP candidate won't win it for a candidate but can hurt.

Romney is a lot stronger than many on the Left (and Right) wiould like to admit. The idea people have to hog wild for a candidate is a myth.

Ronald r Eagan won I n 1980 NOT because mainstream voters were wild about him but because he presented himself as a reasonable alternative to Carter in their only debate, late in the race. People took a chance on him. He didn't win over many people until he was shot and his humble yet heroic recovery.

Romney has great to entail to win in a similar manner. With all the negatives being thrown at him now - just like Reagan at this pint - when people finally focus and see the two men In the debates, Romney stands a far better shot of winning. Over folks than the defensive and depressing Obama.

Right Wingnut said...

Union households voted for Obama by a 59-39 margin.

The GOP has a stranglehold on white males, and Mormons. That's about it.

Right Wingnut said...

Doug, Demographics are far different than they were in the days of Reagan. The Democrats have done a far superior job of dividing the country along racial and gender lines. The GOP needs to figure out how to reverse that trend.

Doug NYC GOP said...

Democrats were able to do that when the economy was in god shape.

The lousy state of unemployment and oppurtunity cuts across All groups.

As I say it will be close, but Romney offers the best chance, which is why voters selected him, for the general election.

Joel2012 said...

RW,

Your post that was directed at me was precisely my point to you and yet you chose to respond with the same old stuff as before. I made it clear my dynamic goes beyond the normal numbers and hence I have no data for you to ponder, nor can you give me any information that takes under consideration what I stated before. Only time will determine the extent of the anti-incumbent sentiment and how it will ultimately affect this race.

Anonymous said...

Doug, I agree with you that Rubio won't make or break Romney. I kinda like him, but he's not my top choice.

RW, the polls show that Bush does better with Hispanics than Rubio, so he's not a slam dunk.

I also think that big immigration battle back in 05-06? was a HUGE mistake for the GOP.

-Martha

Anonymous said...

Romney said he wants a VP who is ready to be President. That isn't Rubio. Romney prefers a Governor or former Governor, which also isn't Rubio. Nobody wants the country to have too few jobs, including Hispanics.

Hispanics also realize how dangerous Obama is, and how we need the strong military Romney promised. Nobody wants to be American if the Constitution is disregarded and not respected.

We've seen your previous posts, so we know how much you just wish this were true. Wishful thinking on your part. So sad, and not"Right."

Anonymous said...

While Rubio pick won't match the McCain 'Hail Mary full of Space' pick, he's not ready to be president either. He's got time - lot's of it. If he's as good as you people keep saying he will be, then he'll be even better in 2020.

Meanwhile, RWN - the adults are in charge of this, and Romney will not be pressured to put a 2 year freshman senator on the ticket, who has as much experience as the current holder of the Oval office.

Ellie

Anonymous said...

And if Mitt could get away with it, Former gov and HHS secretary, Michael Levitt, would be an excellent choice. But you know... those folks in the deep south would dash for the vapors if 2 mormons were on the ticket.

Anonymous said...

RW is exactly right. I usually war with him as MR MR but must credit his analysis. I don't know what his motives are but he's spot on. Romney cannot lose blacks, gays, Jews, Muslims/Arabs ( in FLA and MI), young voters, union voters, Asians, women, environmentalists AND Hispanics 3-1 and expect to win. MR "self-deportation" and a white boring "cut your benefits" VP will get slaughtered among Hispanics. It's NOT about experience. It's about INTELLIGENCE and CHARISMA. That's what people vote for. Obama beat McCain. Who had more experience? It's Rubio or a loss. Rubio covers everything we need blue collar, Colombian wife, catholic, pro life, right wing, tea party,Hispanic who's fluent in Spanish ( unlike sandoval), from FLA, great speaker, great debater, giant killer who took out Charlie crist, never lost an election, appeal to young college voters, son of a maid and bartender, handsome etc... Romney will deserve to lose if he passes on this GOP star

Anonymous said...

The 2010 Election is the best indicator of how Obama is going down in November.

Anonymous said...

I would be surprised, but content, if Rightwingnut would confess finally that he's a Leftwingnut.

Anonymous said...

Romney advocates cracking down on illegal immigration while expediting legal immigration. I'm certain there are a lot of Latino's that have family members waiting in line to legally acquire U.S. citizenship.

Latino unemployment is at 10.3% (up from roughly 9% when Obama took office).

Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee and others want Rubio for VP. Although we all agree Rubio has some issues (like inexperience), why would they flag Rubio for VP if it would not benefit the GOP ticket?

Rubio is flying well below the radar right now. I think it is purposefully. He is probably getting rigorously coached and groomed for the VP slot. They will not announce his pick (if he is the VP pick) until the very last minute. This will give the Dems little time to smear and give a rock star quality hype to the GOP campaign.

This is not our parent's political arena anymore. The Dems figured it out in 2008. I think the GOP is starting to get it.

- Moi

(Disclaimer: Rubio is not my #1 pick. But I think he has huge potential.)

Anonymous said...

MRMR Rubio is cuban not colombian. Rubio shouldnt be a first pick for Romney. Majority of Hispanics in this country are mexicans followed by central and south americans. Cubans are different and the other hispanics dont care about them.

leighrow said...

RW

If Mr. Amnesty McCain could not garner the hispanic vote then I highly doubt that Romney would capture the hispanic vote with Rubio.

This however does not mean that Romney will lose because after all Romney is running against the most incompetent,divisive leader this country has ever known.

The GOP needs to set the messaging and put president Obama on the defensive.

For example the GOP needs to re-brand the contraception debate as the freedom of religion debate.

The GOP needs to clearly show the dangers of a 15 plus trillion deficit and they need to strongly push back on the Buffet tax as a class warfare scam to divide the country which will do absolutely nothing in reducing the debt.

Anonymous said...

Rubio is correct when he says (and he has said it repeatedly): "I will not be the VP [nominee]." Only he knows why. But I, for one, am going to take him at his word.

leighrow said...

One other thing has anyone noticed that Axelrod has laid off of calling Romney a flip flopper in the most recent weeks? I think they realized that Obama is the king of the flip flops and that this branding strategy will backfire on Obama BIG TIME!

Rebecca Randolph said...

wow...I see we can't even have discussions within the party anymore...it's turned into basically anyone who points out an area that might not be mitt's strong point is just demonized when we should be talking about how he could win over those voters!! first of all, I can't figure out why people would be pushing so hard for rubio since we are trying to regain control of the senate also and it makes no sense to pull one of our senators just to put on the ticket....second, as a virginian, I can assure you that mcdonnell won't win him my state....nothing against gov mcdonnell (i'm very happy with everything he's done here and actually wished he could've been our nominee especially considering how well he ran his campaign here) i don't know exactly what it is that doesn't resonate about him here (could be though that our gop voters are pretty conservative, both socially and fiscally) but there was polling done that said in the time since our primary, obama has doubled his lead over romney here....we've got to deal with hardcore libs up by dc and quite honestly, the only thing i see happening is that a lot of social conservatives aren't regular voters but with obama being so pro-abortion, they've been really focused on getting people registered to vote and would be the perfect group to counter the organization of the unions...the media refuses to cover their protests but any group that can bring half a million (also a lot of younger voters too) to dc for a protest is a group the gop shouldn't be alienating and the reason i don't think rubio is a necessary on the ticket because hispanics are socially conservative so that's another plus

Massachusetts Conservative said...

RW,

Mitt is leading Obama in 3 of the latest polls nationally.

Is he exceeding 36% of the hispanic vote in these polls? Hell no.

Does it matter? No, obviously.

End of discussion.

leighrow said...

Rebecca-I agree. I think people want to vote for someone who has a record of accomplishment and who has lead before. I agree with you on Rubio and I think that Governor Mitch Daniels from Indiana would also be a strong choice for VP. Daniels and Romney are two very accomplished leaders and I think this would make for a very strong ticket.

Right Wingnut said...

MassCon,

How's he doing in Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado? Don't BS me. I checked before I posted this comment.

Can he win without these states? All but Ohio have large Hispanic populations.

Right Wingnut said...

Do you want to know what scares the hell out of me? Texas is 37% Hispanic....second only to New Mexico.

Right Wingnut said...

Even North Carolina is nearly 9% Hispanic.....up 111% since 2000. I don't think it's a coincidence that it's now a swing state.

Joel2012 said...

Here ye, here ye! It's time for everyone to recognize that Hispanics rule the world! Maybe not, but at the very least the fate of this general election is in their hands, right? Well perhaps this is and/or isn't necessarily the case but even if it is, that doesn't necessarily mean the answer to all of our ills is choosing a Hispanic to be on the ticket, That is wishful thinking at best, especially if you think there's someone who is ready to win the hearts of Hispanic voters nationwide simply because they're Hispanic. That isn't likely to happen!

Anonymous said...

You are plainly wrong, RW. Romney should choose the best VP.

Dick Morris reported that Rasmussen polls Romney ahead of Obama by a five point lead, 48 – 43. Morris said 57% likely to vote against Obama.

Harry J. Enten, of the Guardian, echoes {another sentiment}, "The conventional wisdom says that unless Romney makes up this gap among women and Latino voters, he's going to lose the election. I disagree. 2010 election showed little change in minorities' high level of support of Democrats. Instead the landslide reflects cornering the market in the white vote; instead of winning by only 4 points, they won by 23 points.

As Leighrow stated, Why do people ,,, accuse Romney as having a cloud of distrust and give Obama a free pass? If Romney represents a cloud of distrust, then Obama's economic plan is the Blackhole of Doom!

Right Wingnut said...

Pastel (Anon @ 8:12),

We both know the real reason why you oppose Rubio.

Dillon said...

There is a problem...you didn't do your research. I personally like Rubio a lot, but he isn't a "natural born citizen". His parents were not naturalized until 1975...four years after his birth. By law, he cannot be VP or President. Like Obama he had dual citizenship at birth. Rubio - Cuban/American. Obama - British(kenyan father)/American.

Anonymous said...

Pastel said she likes Rubio. She never said anything remotely like her "opposing" Rubio.

Rubio's parents were not citizens when he was born, but he was born in U.S. However, since his parents were not U.S. citizens when he was born, he's not a natural born citizen.

The bottomline for everyone ought to be that Rubio says he's not going to be the VP nominee. I don't think he's lying.

Anon is correct, Dick Morris said 57% likely to vote for Romney. Enten also correct that 2010 landslide didn't result from Latino's or women's vote.

TRUE: 2010 landslide reflected cornering the market of white voters and winning them by 23 points.

RWN please admit you are an Obama cheerleader.

Right Wingnut said...

anon/PASTEL at xx:10.

You're not fooling anyone. I told you I can spot your comments a mile away.