Tuesday, April 17, 2012

270 To Win

I found this terrific interactive election map. Below, is a hypothetical example. Even if Romney sweeps Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia, he'll still need either New Hampshire, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, or Colorado to win the election. If he loses any of the aforementioned states (especially Florida), the race is virtually unwinnable for Romney. A certain Junior Senator from Florida is looking better all the time as a potential running mate.

Try it yourself. It's fun!

If you click on "Share Map" (directly below the map), you can copy and paste the URL for your own map. Just scroll down a bit after clicking the "Share Map" button. I'd be interested to see what your predictions are 6 1/2 months out. Share them in the comment section.

This map is NOT my prediction. It is only an example.

16 comments:

Doug NYC GOP said...

This web site tool is cool and has been around for yrs.

Here is an article from this morning outlining Romney's Electoral College outlook.....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/romneys-bright-electoral-landscape/2012/04/15/gIQA9jcsJT_blog.html?tid=pm_opinions_pop

Basically if he runs stronger than McCain but weaker than Bush he can still win

Right Wingnut said...

Doug, with all due respect, I take everything Jen Rubin writes with a huge grain of salt. She fails to take into account changing demographics in NM, CO, and NV since the 2004 election. He very well may need to win at least one of those states. To do so, he will need a large share of the Hispanic vote. Knowing this, it's interesting that she doesn't mention any Hispanics as potential running mates.

Anonymous said...

By MR MR - RW is exactly right. While RW is a bit too pessimistic in my view he is closer to reality than the Mittfans. I am a huge Mittfan but realistic. Perhaps like Scrooge RW has seen the ghost of Christmas future (Obama) and want to avoid it by joining the team. We do need the right wing. We also need Independents. Per RW the "vast majority" of the RW finds Rubio acceptable as do independents. As for the map while I think Mitt has a 50-50 shot at PA, CO and NH and outside shots at MI and WI but no chance in IA or NM, I also think Obama has a 50-50 shot at OH, and outside side at FLA (even with Rubio) and VA/NC. This is no layup.

Pablo said...

I agree with RW on this one. In fact, I would say that the map shown here is probably the slightly positive (for Romney) status quo. The good news is that it is very possible for him to win, but I would give him about a 40% chance at this point.

As RightWingnut has pointed out, if Romney can't make inroads in Colorado or Nevada, then he has limited options elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Rubio helps in FLA, NC, VA, CO and NV big time.

He also helps with right wing in PA and OH somewhat

Anonymous said...

I messed around with this over the weekend and the first map I came up with was an electoral tie: 269-269. Which would mean the House of Representatives would cast the deciding vote. All the more reason for the GOP to hold the House this November. Here's my map:

http://www.270towin.com/#.T42q8NhVAkw.link

-Phil

Anonymous said...

Having seen RW through the primary process I know he doesn't want Romney to win. He's right up there with Larry O'Donnell with filthy talk about Mormons. He's a lying con man. He's NOT trying to advocate a path for Romney to win.

It's a waste of time talking about Rubio. Rubio says he's not the VP candidate. Either he's a liar or he isn't the VP candidate. I don't think he's a liar.

The historic 2010 Election Landslide is the best indicator of November 2012 Election results: Romney will win.

My experience with Jennifer Rubin is that she is a Romney supporter. I respect her tremendously. She is a major truth teller. RW is NOT, he is consistently raunchy.

Anonymous said...

I love Rubio as VP, but Rubio has been firm in saying he will not be VP, if not Rubio can someone else like Susanna Martinez do the job? If not then who? I have always had Christie Rubio has my personal top 2 favorites.

Anonymous said...

Rubio shouldnt be VP because Obama will run this race as being against the rich and exposing Mitt's weird mormonism. They will bring up Rubio being a mormon also when he was young and note he left the weird mormon religion to be a catholic.

Anonymous said...

Paul Ryan is my guess. As I've looked at Romney over the last year I can see a person who wants to go with what's comfortable for him and what is a logical decision. He won't make the decision based upon trying to woo a specific crowd. He'll go for a safer bet. Which, after watching the 2008 fiasco I'm all for the safer bet. Heaven forbid we get an untested candidate up on that national stage again.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Phil's tie scenario seems quite realistic. Wouldn't that be...historic?

Ohio JOE said...

Great post RW!

Anonymous said...

NH of all states will be an early sign on election night. If Romney wins NH, he will a portent for a good night.
Also, I think Romney will win CO, IA, and NV this year. Just a gut feeling.

Doug NYC GOP said...

The fact the media has to manipulate their polling indicates Obama is in deep.

Best bet at this juncture is to assume a tie game with Romney's fresh offense having the edge against Obama's tired defense, to earn victory.

Doug NYC GOP said...

I think Romney wins NH ans has a shot at Maine as well.

dgenetaylor said...

Thank you. Very help to play "what if." Its certainly an up-hill challenge this election cycle, after 2008. (For Mitt, or for anyone, in my opinion.) Its no "cake-walk" as they say.