Friday, March 9, 2012

Why the Non-Romneys Have No Chance of Winning the Nomination

Yesterday I declared that the Non-Romneys would not win the nomination. Today I want to back it up with some interesting facts.

I created a graph below to show just what Santorum (the leading non-Romney) would have to do in order to win the nomination. At this point in the race, Santorum must win 66.5% of the remaining delegates if he wants to get to the magic number of 1,144.

But what if Romney wins New Jersey and Utah, two very, very, very likely scenarios. Santorum would then have to win 70% of all of the remaining delegates. Yet, most of the other states are proportional. Of the four remaining candidates, Santorum is currently getting about about 30% of the delegates. Only one time so far has Santorum cracked 70% of the delegates (it is still unclear if he will get that many) and that was in Minnesota. So if Santorum doesn't win Utah and NJ, then he will have to do the impossible -- win 70% of the vote in a four-man race in a proportional-dominated system.

But even that doesn't account for California. Theoretically, if Romney were to win California in addition to NJ and Utah, then Santorum would have to win 80% of all remaining delegates. Yes, California does have some different rules. It is possible to win the state and not win every delegate, but generally the winner will get almost all of them.

But even that does not consider the proportional states of New York, New Mexico, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Illinois. Anybody think that Santorum is likely to get anywhere near 66.5% of the vote there, much less, 80% if he doesn't win the three aforementioned states?

But even that does not consider the winner take all states of Wisconsin, Maryland, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Santorum's only hope to win the nomination is if all three of opponents fall over dead in the next couple of days. It's time for Santorum to pull out the "I didn't major in math, I majored in miracles" line. But I digress.

As I mentioned in the my post yesterday, there are only two choices for Republican primary voters: (a) don't vote for Romney and prolong the primary season only to see a badly bruised Romney emerge as the nominee or (b) vote for Romney so that he can quickly win the nomination and immediately run a general election campaign.

As a side note, which option do you think will make talk radio hosts more money? I will give you a hint. Talk radio hosts don't major in math. Actually, most of them didn't major in anything, but I digress.



Romney
Santorum
Gingrich
Paul
Total Delegates:          2,286
Delegates Needed
735
981
1033
1083

% of remaining delegates needed
49.8%
66.5%
70%
73.4%
Remaining Delegates: 1,475
% of remaining delegates needed If Romney Wins UT, NJ
46.5%
70%
74.5%
78.1%
Remaining Delegates: 1385
% of remaining delegates needed if Romney wins  UT, NJ, and CA
38.9%
80%
85.1%
89.2%
Remaining Delegates: 1213


17 comments:

Robb F. said...

Great analysis Pablo. I think Romney should ignore the challengers and start running a general election campaign now. This puppy is over. The worst thing for Santorum and Gingrich is if Romney simply ignores them.

I would also add Montana, Oregon and the islands to the Romney column. What would the math look like with them added? It's over. Let's all admit that and concentrate on Obama.

Publius Nemo said...

nice work. great graph!

Anonymous said...

Nice job Pablo. The writing is on the wall. I haven't heard what the talk radio clowns are saying since Tues. Any sign of rationality among them?

I agree, they are only it in for themselves. They are working for Obama now, and have been for months.

-Martha

Teemu said...

Rasmussen Mississippi: Romney 35%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 27%, Paul 6% Alabama: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%

In MS, Romney wins even head-to-head match against Santorum, Mississippi has lots of respected Republicans whom people listen

Romney 46%
Santorum 44%
Somebody else 4%
Undecided 6%

Romney has gotten endorsements from Senator Thad Cochran, former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, and the current governor also endorsed Romney, here are “strongly approve” numbers of MS governor and the governors from other states where governor endorsed Romney. MS 39%, TN 28%, MI 26%

Rasmussen Alabama: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%

Teemu said...

Rasmussen Mississippi: Romney 35%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 27%, Paul 6% Alabama: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%

In MS, Romney wins even head-to-head match against Santorum, Mississippi has lots of respected Republicans whom people listen

Romney 46%
Santorum 44%
Somebody else 4%
Undecided 6%

Romney has gotten endorsements from Senator Thad Cochran, former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott, and the current governor also endorsed Romney, here are “strongly approve” numbers of MS governor and the governors from other states where governor endorsed Romney. MS 39%, TN 28%, MI 26%

Rasmussen Alabama: Gingrich 30%, Santorum 29%, Romney 28%, Paul 7%

Teemu said...

If Romney wins either Alabama or Mississippi, best case both, then I hope media start to treat Santorum as just as a random stalker candidate who has now chance to win, though he is that already :D

Doug NYC GOP said...

If Romney win MS and comes in thisclose in AL it is over.

There are no more excuses for the others to trot out.

There are no more things Mitt has to prove. He has won everywhere and beaten back all comers.

Time for Santboring to enter the Sweater VEst business and learn what it takes to be in the real economy.

Anonymous said...

I appreciate your article. The 'right wing' media are exposed for what they are now: coreless, immoral, hypocrits.

Anonymous said...

I appreciate your article. The 'right wing' media are exposed for what they are now: coreless, immoral, hypocrites.

Anonymous said...

Romney is going to win all of the remaining Western States: CA, OR, MT, NM, HI, WY (this Saturday). He is also going to win the remaining North Eastern States: CT, RI, NY, NJ, MD, DE, and DC. Romney is also likely to win IL.

Santorum is likely to win the remaining midwestern states: SD, NE, KS, MO, AR, and LA. I suspect he will also win PA, KY, and WV.

The remaining states are going to be a battle of which I believe Romney can win: WI, IN, and TX.

Of course, if Romney wins either MS or AL - the fat lady will have sung and the race will be over.

Firecracker

Sharlene, Mom, Grammy said...

I have never been good at math, but this math is so simple, even I understand it.

Thanks for a great article, which breaks down the math so everyone (even radio talking heads) should be able to understand that Mitt Romney is going to be our nominee. Go Mitt!

Terrye said...

The truth is the only reason Romney does not have this rapped up right now is the rules change.

Anonymous said...

this is good analysis. I'd like to add one thing to it though. Santy hasn't been able to get enough delegates in Illinois and isn't on the ballot in DC. Mitt is competitive in the south and a new poll from PPP has Mitt up in North Carolina.

The Romney campaign thinks they can wrap this up by end of April, but I think the writing will be on the wall much sooner. After the 13th, with the way things are going for Mitt in terms of momentum, it will be next to impossible for Santy to catch up. Newt is no longer a factor. His mountain is too high a climb.

The Romney needs to take apart everything Obama is saying right after he says it and keep on the attack. There will be a lot of mud thrown at Romney, a lot of bait and switch. Romney is the only candidate with the discipline to not get off the rails.

Go Mitt!

Anonymous said...

Romney won all nine Guam delegates.
Pablo, it would be a good idea to keep running percentages as a chart in a side column (e.g., remove the Gingrich poll, which is no longer needed).

leighrow said...

If Santorum and Gingrich drag this out to the convention then Romney will have very little time to prepare for the general election, since the convention is August 30th. That gives Romney only 8 weeks to campaign directly against Obama. Gingrich and Santorum will have split the party and bloodied Romney ensuring Obama 4 more years.

I would not be at all surprised if the Dems would encourage these two Washington insiders with special incentives to drag this out. After all that is what Gingrich and Santorum are all about special favors and access!!

leighrow said...

Thanks Pablo for your efforts.

Anonymous said...

The only thing keeping Newt and Santorum in the race is personal gain, they have zero chance to be the nominee. It is time for them to do the right thing and bow out of this contest with their dignity intact. If they continue on history will show them as the primary reason why the incumbent won his re-election. This contest is over, everyone can see that they are hurting the cause in their attempts to diminish and weaken the only candidate that can defeat the incumbent. It is time to collectively put the pressure on these two individuals to drop out of the race immediately.