Monday, March 19, 2012

PPP Polling: Romney with BIG LEAD in ILLINOIS

Mitt Romney is headed for a blowout victory in Illinois on Tuesday. He
leads with 45% to 30% for Rick Santorum, 12% for Newt Gingrich, and 10% for Ron Paul.

Romney's particularly strong among voters who live in suburban areas (50-29) and with those who live in urban areas (46-23). But he's even running slightly ahead of Santorum, 38-36, with folks who identify as living in rural parts and that strength with a group of voters he hasn't tended to do that well with is why he's looking at such a lopsided margin
of victory.

Romney tends to win moderates in most states and Santorum usually win voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' The swing group in the Republican electorate is those identifying as just 'somewhat conservative.' Romney is winning those folks by a whooping 60-20 margin in Illinois. Romney's also benefiting from a 52-28 advantage with seniors.
Head-To-Head:

Mitt Romney 45%
Rick Santorum 30%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Ron Paul10%
PPP surveyed 506 likely Republican primary voters on March 17th and 18th. The margin
of error for the survey is +/-4.4%.
The full story and crosstabs can be viewed HERE.

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7 comments:

Machtyn said...

While I like these results, I can't trust these polls anymore. Not after they screwed up Super Southern Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

Ditto, Machtyn. Illinois is an open primary, if I'm not mistaken. So Dems can vote for Santorum to mess with Romney. Is the Mayor of Chicago, Obama's Rahm Emanuel, totally oblivious to the GOP primary in his state? I don't think so. Also, the southern part of Illinois is different from the north in terms of population density, culture, priorities, values, etc. Call me paranoid. But, as an old student of politics once told me, "Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean nobody's out to get you."

Truth lover said...

In the Illinois primary, a voter must select either a republican ballot or a democratic ballot. Once a ballot is selected, you can't go back and forth . Democratic voters who chose a democratic primary ballot will not be able to vote in democratic primary races.

Machtyn said...

Also, the Dem party also have important ballot initiatives on Tues. I do worry that they will throw those aside to play Operation Hillarity. But I haven't heard any whispers to that.

Anyone know if Rick is sending out robocalls to Democrats in IL?

Graham said...

PPP has him leading 15 pts--that only means he'll win by 6 or 7. They're ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

PPP is well known to be awful. The key will be what the dems do to try to mess with Romney, the guy they fear the most.

Anonymous said...

Mitt should win, according to this poll, even if it was just Mitt vs Vest, Mitt would win big.

Just make sure drudgereport doesnt call the race early again, to be proven wrong.