Tuesday, March 6, 2012

My Thoughts And Predictions For Super Tuesday

The biggest question for Super Tuesday will be how long Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will stay in the race.  With  419 delegates at stake for Super Tuesday, both men are looking to stop Mitt Romney's momentum any way they can. It will be a difficult challenge given that Mitt Romney has recently won a string of victories in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Washington and Wyoming. Additionally, Mitt Romney is far ahead of his competitors when it comes the delegate count. 
 
Rick Santorum will try stop Mitt Romney in Ohio where 66 delegates are up for grabs. However, winning Ohio will not be easy because his campaign has become very disorganized and he may not be able to get all the delegates in that state. Initially, he lost 9 delegates but may end up losing 9 more delegates which means that he may not get more than one quarter of them. What this means is that he might lose out on 16 of the 66 delegates.  Santorum's problem is compounded by the fact that the delegates he may be losing will probably come from places where he enjoys strong support. To make matters worse, Rick Santorum is currently tied with Mitt Romney in a Reuters/Ipsos poll while Public Policy Polling has Romney ahead in Ohio.  
 
Ohio isn't the only problem for Rick Santorum.  He's not on the Virginia ballot where 49 delegates are up for grabs. He was initially not on the Indiana ballot but is apparently now on the ballot and may not do well in that state. He's also not doing well in some of the other Super Tuesday states and will most likely come in second and third in these states. 
 
Newt Gingrich is making his last stand in Georgia where it has the largest prize of 76 delegates up for grabs and is hoping to revive his candidacy in his state. Currently, Newt Gingrich is ahead poll in the peach state according to the most recent Mason-Dixon Poll. While Newt Gingrich might win Georgia and steal the delegates away from Mitt Romney, it will not be enough to resuscitate his campaign since he will mostly likely come in third or fourth in the other Super Tuesday states.  
 
Ron Paul will not win any states on Super Tuesday. If he does, I'll be very surprised. However, in Virginia where just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates on the ballot in that states, Mitt is set to blow Ron Paul out of the water since he is ahead by 40 points. In other Super Tuesday states, Ron Paul will most likely come in third or fourth place. 
 
Super Tuesday will be an exciting day. Not only is Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum scrambling to keep their campaigns afloat, but they're both focusing on the two states that has the most delegates to win in order to slow down Mitt Romney's rapid collection of delegates. Between these two states, there are 142 delegates at stake which is a third of the total delegates available to win on Super Tuesday. Both of these men, either operating together or independently, are looking to deprive Romney of winning the two big prizes. However, even if Mitt does lose one or both of these states, he will come out ahead on Super Tuesday with more delegates and more victories under his belt. 
 
Given that Mitt Romney has, so far, won primaries in the North, South, Midwest and the West, he will do very well on Super Tuesday. Its also worth pointing out that up until Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win delegates in every state where a contest has been held and delegates have been up for grabs. We also cannot forget the fact that Mitt Romney has been doing very well among conservatives in these primary elections. The fact that there was record turnouts in Michigan and Washington and he won these states. In fact, Mitt Romney did so well among in the Washington caucus  that kinda messes up the media meme that he's not connecting with Republicans. However, the facts prove that he is. 
 
Now that I've publish my thoughts about Super Tuesday, I'd like to make my predictions. Here they are below: 
  1. Alaska (caucus): Mitt Romney will win by a huge margin in that state. It will be a blow out in which he may get as high as 80% of the vote in that state.  
  2. Georgia (primary): This will be the only state Newt Gingrich wins on Super Tuesday. I predict that Mitt Romney will come in second, Santorum third and Ron Paul in last place. 
  3. Idaho (caucus): This state will probably give Mitt Romney the largest support on Super Tuesday in which I think he will get 90% of the vote. Romney is very well liked in that state and there is a large LDS presence in that state.  
  4. Massachusetts (primary):  Mitt Romney will also win the state that he governed from 2003-2007. He's will liked in that state and enjoyed strong support from the Massachusetts Republican Party. Right now,  Suffolk University has a poll from February where Romney is ahead by a huge margin of  64% whereas Santorum had 16% support, with Paul at 7% and Gingrich at just 6%. 
  5. North Dakota (caucus): Mitt Romney will probably win this state by 60% of the vote. 
  6. Ohio (primary) This election could go either way with Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum winning this state. However, Rick Santorum will probably lose this state since he's either tied or behind in the polls. Moreover, the fact that Mitt has momentum from winning 5 elections in a row, Rick Santorum's horrible performance at the Arizona GOP Debate and losing in Michigan and Washington, voters will probably will probably go for Mitt. 
  7. Oklahoma (primary): This will be the only state that Mitt Romney will do horribly in. Santorum has a huge lead over all the other GOP candidatesMitt might come in third place but will probably end up in second place. 
  8. Tennessee (primary): Rick Santorum is barely holding on to this state but he will probably win this state. 
  9. Vermont (primary): Mitt Romney will have another blow out victory in this state with the other candidates will come in at a distant second, third and fourth places. 
  10. Virginia (primary): As I explained above, Mitt Romney will win by a huge margin over Ron Paul and will easily win the 49 delegates up for grabs.
Super Tuesday will be a good night for Mitt. He's looking to win 7 states and I think he'll rack up anywhere between 220 to 240 delegates that day. Moreover, given that he will win by huge margins in a few states, more and more conservatives will unite around Romney in the primary elections after Super Tuesday.  
This article was originally posted on Conservative Samizdat

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10 comments:

Stephen Monteith said...

I wouldn't count on Santorum winning Tennessee, exactly. The governor there endorsed Romney, and it's hardly going to be Santorum's focus tomorrow. That's the thing no one seems to acknowledge about the candidates: That Romney is the only one who can afford to focus on more than one (or even more than nine) states at a time. Santorum has to go full bore in Ohio, which means Romney and even Gingrich see their chances in Tennessee.

As for Oklahoma, there hasn't been any real polling there in weeks. I think the last Rasmussen poll was before the Arizona debate. And with Tom Coburn's endorsement of Romney, you can expect him to not finish "horribly". I think he'll be quite competitive there, even if he doesn't win.

Anonymous said...

Romney wins 8 including TN, and will Palin move out of Alaska when Romney wins there?

Terrye said...

I think Santorum will win in Oklahoma, but Romney will not do horribly...Santorum's lead is down to about 8..

And I am not sure about Tennessee either.

Clay said...

I think Mr. Romney makes a clean sweep today. I believe the voters will back him as he is the next president. Say good-bye to president Obama.

Massachusetts Conservative said...

90% in Idaho? 80% in Alaska? 60% margin in North Dakota?

I wish, but, no. He will win probably all 3 but maybe lose ND. We shall see.

I agree on all the others.

Anonymous said...

Romney will win over 50% of the vote in Idaho, but no way does he get 90%. I live in Idaho and the way that the caucus is going to work here this year is as follows. In each precinct a vote will be taken and if there is no candidate with at least 50% +1 vote in that precinct then the lowest vote getter will be dropped and a new round of votes will be cast. Once the 50% +1 is reached then the caucus is done for that precinct and they report their results to the state people. It is quite possible for Romney to get over 50% in most of the counties in Idaho, but there are a couple, in northern Idaho, where I could see Ron Paul getting to 50%. I think that Gingrich will be the first candidate dropped in each precinct where a second round of voting has to happen.

DanL

leighrow said...

I think Romney will win in TN...so I predict Romney will win 8 states. I really don't think Romney will perform horribly in Ok..especially after Coburn's endorsement. I have not seen any recent OK polls. OK may surprise everyone...one can only hope and pray for victories in 9 of the 10 states for Romney. I would think that Gingrich and Santorum would have the brains and common sense to call it a day if Romney wins by a landslide today.

Anonymous said...

Unless the other candidates are only in it for themselves, after tonight Santorum and Gingrich need to get out of the race so we can go to work bearing down hard and pushing the Obamas out the back door of the White House. Which reminds me, I need to slip in and pinch a loaf before I leave for work.

Machtyn said...

Alaska: Ron Paul will make this tight. Romney will win, will he get over 50%? I hope so.

Georgia: Gingrich will win, but I don't think he gets the 50% to lock all the delegates. Santorum and Romney, especially, will take votes. Romney had a large turnout for his rally there.

Idaho: Romney wins 50%+ taking all delegates

MA: Romney wins 50+. Delegates are still proportional.

ND: Romney wins. I don't know if it will be 50%+, I don't think so.

Ohio: Romney wins in a close race - 4% points.

OK: Santorum wins. I get no read here. I don't understand why Rick is doing well here and Mitt hasn't appeared to make a play at it. Perhaps I missed the news about a townhall there.

TN: Also close, Santorum by 2% points, or less.

VT: Romney wins big, but not over 50%

VA: Romney wins big with 50%+ and takes all delegates. But this one has me worried because Santorum and/or Gingrich supporters may throw in with Paul just to mess things up.

Publius Nemo said...

I hope you're right. That would be a big night for Romney.