Monday, March 5, 2012

The Coming Gingrich Boom and Why Romney's Favorables Will Take A Dive

If you thought that primary season has been ugly, then buckle your seat belts. Nate Silver, who is often wrong, projects that Romney will get over 200 delegates on Super Tuesday. However, the big story is that Silver also projects that Newt Gingrich will gain more delegates than Santorum. Why should we care? Have you looked at the schedule after Super Tuesday? It's a Southern delight. Establishment figures who have been saying that if Romney wins big on Super Tuesday the race will be over are only dreaming. Gingrich (or Santorum) have every incentive to stay in the race.

March 10
Kansas (non-Romney)
Northern Marianas (nobody cares)
Virgin Islands (nobody cares)
Guam (nobody cares)

March 13
Alabama (non-Romney)
Mississippi (non-Romney)
Hawaii (nobody cares)
American Somoa (nobody cares)

March 17
Missouri (non-Romney)

March 18 
Puerto Rico (nobody cares)

March 20
Illinois (Romney)

March 24 
Louisiana (non-Romney)

I have crassly divided up the states in March between states that Gingrich will likely win, states that nobody cares about, and states that Romney will win. It is not pretty for Romney.

Get ready for an entire month of fighting contraception, Sharia law, and negros on food stamps (read things that only Southerns care about). Romney will ultimately prevail, but if he wants to compete in any of these states then he will have to be willing to take an even larger hit on his favorables. Romney is already bleeding independents. The last thing he needs is to chase Gingrich on the crazy train.

By the way, this is why Tennessee is shaping up to be important. If Romney can win TN, he might put the other two away. If Gingrich wins, then that will be two big southern states that he takes. Not a good situation.

24 comments:

Terrye said...

Gingrich has seen his support in the South fall by 30% in the last two weeks. I don't think he is a shoe in...even in the South.

Anonymous said...

I can't disagree more with these sentiments. The "one state" strategy is something that has more power very early in the campaign. It usually does not work (see Rudy G) because the reasons why a candidate is implying this strategy is because of desperation.
After Super Tuesday, the GOP will see that Mitt Romney is their candidate. It is too late for any Newt Gingrich "one state" strategy ploys. The Romney snow ball effect will overcome any media darling sentiments towards Newt's one state strategy. After Super Tuesday the GOP will slowly consolidate to Mitt, and we will get ready for the general election in Nove,ber.

~Reaganesque

Pablo said...

Reaganesque,

I will wrote a love poem to Sarah Palin if Romney wins Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri,

Anonymous said...

Romney may indeed lose Kansas, Alabama and Mississippi...but is anyone surprised?

However, he is showing he is competitive in Southern and Midwestern Evangelical states like GA, TN and OK.

Romney should pick up delegates in both MS and AL. In addition, all of the territories that are voting do award delegates, of which Romney should win the most.

With Romney blowing out the competition tomorrow tonight, he should come in strong in the KS Caucus, even if he doesn't win. The delegates he will earn in the 3territories will make up for it, and it will not go unreported.

Firecracker

Machtyn said...

I rather disagree with the KS and MO being in the non-Romney category. Those two are the only States with a contest where all candidates can concentrate.

I think Romney is done floundering in the mud with Gingrich because of the momentum gained out of Super Tuesday and he can essentially concentrate on winning voters and bashing Obama.

Is Newt dead? Nope, I never thought he was. But does he have any money, will he get more? I don't think so. The ABR grassroots folks have spent all their money on Bachmann, Perry, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. Each time, the donations pool gets smaller. And Gingrich cannot pull from those that have maxed out on him from the last two resurrections and the middle and middle-upper classes don't have much left to give.

I wouldn't count LA out of Romney's category. Yes, there may still be rampant bigotry down there, but the LDS volunteer groups were VERY visible during the Katrina and other hurricane clean-up period. (Not that bigotry is the only reason, but it seems implied with the Southern State strategy.)

Besides, all of those states are proportional, Romney still gets delegates out of all of those states. But if he gets 2nd place finishes, his momentum is certainly slowed.

Anonymous said...

Oh my. I hope you are wrong Pablo.

And, I would hate to see you have to write a love poem to Sarah. That would be painful indeed.

-Martha

Anonymous said...

In a perfect world, Newt and Rick would read the writing on the wall the way Romney did in '08.

Mitt really did drop out for the good of the party back then. He could have kept going and given McCain a bit of trouble like Newt and Rick want to do. But he would not have been able to win, and neither can they. All they can do is further divide the party, and reduce Mitt's chances in the fall.

My question is whether they realize it, or are they so blinded by their enormous egos they can't see that they have no path to the nomination.

This is pathetic.

-Martha

newark hawk said...

Romney will win Illinois & Hawaii for sure.

He has an excellent chance of winning Missouri(he won it in 2008), and a puncher's chance of winning Kansas, thanks to the very powerful endorsements of Bob & Elizabeth Dole.

Romney will write off the arm-pit of America, the Deep South, but will nonetheless win his share of delegates in those states that have proportional distribution.

Momentum from Super Tuesday could play a significant role in all of these contests.

Teemu said...

I think Nate Silver gives way too many delegates to Newt in Georgia, that assumes winning too many CDs by over 50% I think, or totally crazy share of vote gotten by those who got over 20% of total vote.

Also a delegate or two too few to Romney from Oklahoma. Also probably too few delegates to Romney from Ohio, Santy isn't even on the CD ballot in the two potentially most Santy friendly CDs, so I don't think Santy is going to get 28 (21, 7 uncommitted because of being partially on ballot).

Also I don't think Romney is going to get that few delegates from Vermont.

Teemu said...

Romney sweeping Ohio, and those other things that I mentioned, could bring Romney to about 280-290 of the super tuesday delegates.

Teemu said...

The caucuses, Kansas and Missouri, are going to go to Santorum if he stays in, so that should take away from Gingrich. Romney might be able to put up a fight against Newt pig in Missouri caucus.

Alabama and Mississippi are very proportional as long as the winner stays below 50%.

Louisiana proportional to those getting over 25% of statewide vote. So delegate wise that isn't going to be that good for non-Romneys.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/

newark hawk said...

As for the Independents, Romney has absolutely nothing to worry about.

Running against Obama in the fall, Romney will own the Indies, just like he owned them when he ran for Governor of Massachusetts in 2002.

Indies love Romney's non-ideological, pragmatic, get 'er done approach to governing.

The fact that Romney looks like a movie star and has a family to match, certainly doesn't hurt either.

If Romney is the GOP nominee, Obama is toast in November, and he knows it.

christian said...

Have any noticed that Romney catching up to Santorum in the Tennesseee poll is in part due to Gingrich rising and taking votes away from Santorum? Newt is almost even with Mitt, and statistically tied with him and Rick.
Also, are radical religious consrvatives in the South going to change based on elections in western and northern states? The core 20% religious bigots will prob continue to dog Romney thru' this election.

christian said...

But Machtyn, the big bucks $$ for Santorum and Gingrich do not come from poor evangelicals. Adelson is giving Gingrich another $10 Million and Foster Friess ontinues to ante up $1 Million at a time for Santorum. This is why (in addition to the religious bigotry) Newt and Rick won't go away-- becuz the big bucks $$ are not drying up when they lose.

Anonymous said...

Pablo is smoking weed again. The states he lists are not going to save Santorum or Gingrich. What of New York and California? These are huge states that will go for Romney. And what of momentum? Romney has it now and will have it even more after tomorrow. Every thing will snowball Romney's way after WTA states start coming in. A brokered convention is just not going to happen.

Anonymous said...

As a US citizen, born in American Samoa, we do matter!!! Maybe not as much but you better care!!!!


And with a name like Pablo, Im assuming you are mexican now living in the states, it doesnt mean you can look down on other countries you beaner!

Anonymous said...

Sorry to say that I find posts like this one depressing, unenlightening, and a waste of effort. WE HAVEN'T EVEN GOTTEN THE RESULTS FROM SUPER TUESDAY! And pundits & bloggers are already trying to psyche out the electorate's behavior AFTER Super Tuesday. This kind of preemptive prediction (usually proven wrong afterwards) has occurred during this entire primary season. It has to do, in part, with feeding people's addiction to the quick high of constantly changing polls. Also the need to have something "smart" to say, despite having no certainty about what one actually is saying. Also boredom with one's role as a mere columnist in the political process (vs. a real candidate's real strategist); competition to get out in front and be quoted first; and the hair-trigger nature of the entire e-media complex.

Thankfully, so far, most actual voters are proving A LOT BRIGHTER than the celebrated pundits who try to predict their behavior.

Anonymous said...

ROMNEY will pull out a 5 point win in the all important OHIO primary. SANTORUM and NEWT should know when to pack it in - for the good of the party. No matter who you prefer for the GOP nomination, the real foe is Obama. Let's get ready for November.

Jerald said...

After Super Tuesday Romney will have incredible MO, just just in states won, but also in delegates.

Those "nobody cares" places you mentioned are all strong for Romney (except maybe Hawaii, but probably there too) and he will get most of the delegates from them and they will run up his "wins" column, and the Southern states are all proportional, so even if Romney doesn't win them, he will come away with a large share of delegates from them.

And donors looking past March see that the calendar becomes very pro-Romney and with Texas now moved to May 29, a good Super Tuesday for Romney will mean the race is all but over except officially.

Romney will not have to battle with Gingrich, he can just ignore him from here on out...

Machtyn said...

@Christian, I make a distinction between political contributions and SPAC contributions. The candidates cannot control those SPACs (though Gingrich may need to be investigated on that point) so they can be equally helpful or damaging. The candidate also cannot spend money from the SPAC to fund travel, advertising creation, etc. I think Newt is bottom barreling it at this point.

Pablo said...

Anon,

"As a US citizen, born in American Samoa, we do matter!!! Maybe not as much but you better care!!!!"

I wasn't saying that American Samoa is a worthless place. I was saying that in a Republican nomination, it does not matter that much. Just like Wyoming has less weight than New Hampshire or Iowa. That is just the way it is. I have never been to American Samoa and I am sure that it is a beautiful place. Please don't misunderstand me on that.

Pablo said...

"Pablo is smoking weed again. The states he lists are not going to save Santorum or Gingrich. What of New York and California? These are huge states that will go for Romney."

Completely agree. However, I am talking about March. If you notice, I mentioned at the post that Romney will eventually prevail. But it is going to be rough for a while and he will need to track right, making it harder for him to win the general election.

Pablo said...

To All,

I hope you guys are right and I am wrong. I would like to see Romney win this immediately. I have my doubts as expressed in the post though.

Slick-Willy said...

Mitt's floor was 14-17% when Perry pushed, 17-20% when Cain pushed, 23-25% when Newt pushed and 26-27% when Santorum pushed. And his peak following each push has increased repeatedly in similar fashion.

Even if Newt makes a push (I doubt it will happen), his ceiling is unlikely to pass 25% and Mitt's floor is unlikely to dip below 28%.