Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Who are you going to believe in MICHIGAN, PPP or Rasmussen?

PPP had a poll out in Michigan yesterday that had Rick Santorum with a 15 point lead over Mitt Romney.

Today, Rasmussen released a poll that had Santorum up by only 3 points (35-32) and that was with a much larger sample than PPP's.

It was noted in the PPP comment section that they were being accused of frying their numbers, as pointed out here:
48% of the respondents are Evangelical in a state where only 27% of the population is Evangelical.
PPP is a Dirty Democrat polling firm who really got caught COOKING this poll from Michigan.............FACT
Just out of curiousity, I tool a look at both Polling companies predictions just before the for Florida primary on January 31:

PPP on January 28-30 had Romney up 8 points
Rassmussen on January 28 had Romney ahead by 16 Points

Romney won by 14.5%

Now I'm not going to go that far and accuse PPP of deliberately trying to skew a poll. Another possibility might be that Mitt Romney's CPAC and MAINE wins may have started to show in Rasmussen's poll.

What do you think?

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19 comments:

Teemu said...

PPP's Michigan sample is more conservative tha way more conservative than Michigan primary was in 2008. In brackets ( ) the 2008 Michigan Republican primary exit poll results.

Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal 3% (3%)
………………………………………….. ….
Somewhat liberal 6% (9%)
……………………………………..
Moderate 18% (33%)
………………………………………….. …….
Somewhat conservative 35% (32%)
…………………………….
Very conservative 38% (24%)


Actually it is more conservative than South Carolina this year according to SC exit polls.

South Carolina 2012 exit polls
Somewhat Conservative 32%
Very Conservative 36%

Teemu said...

2008 MI R primary exit polls

Born-Again or Evangelical Christian? Yes(39%) No(61%)

White Brn-Again Prot(33%)
All Others(67%)

Anonymous said...

Using the terms PPP and conservative in the same sentence is an oxymoron. PPP is a known democrat influenced polling institution.

Teemu said...

One possibility. PPP just has too many questions, when other polls have simple questions needed to identify and classify the voter, which are really easy and fast for the polled person to answer, PPP has many extra questions that are not straightforward, up to 30 questions in some of their primary polls.

Maybe a person suffering from severe Romney derangement syndrome is more likely to be willing to take all that time to answer those questions?

Terrye said...

I think PPP might have messed with the numbers just to hurt Romney and help Santorum, after all Rick will be much easier to beat.

But I also think that this is a very volatile race and we have seen these fluctuations in the polls before and sometimes, the polls have been just plain wrong.

Anonymous said...

PPP cannot be trusted to give accurate info. Go with Gallop, Rasmussen or Real Clear Politics.

Anonymous said...

PPP is widely known to cook the numbers to influence outcomes. PPP exists solely to aide and abet the liberal cause. PPP knows that Santorum is weaker candidate than Romney, so they push him up. The Obama people know this as well, so they have deliberately created the recent kerfuffle over Catholics, abortion, and contraception with the knowledge that it would help Santorum, who is Catholic.

Right Wingnut said...

yeah, but the also underestimated Santorum's support by A LOT in CO, MN, and MO.

Please don't cherry pick. Some of us were born at night, but not last night.

Anonymous said...

It's true that the polls weren't right in CO or MN. I don't think anybody was that serious polling a vote that didn't count. Still, caucuses are more difficult to poll than primaries. Michigan is a primary and shouldn't be as difficult to poll.

AZ

Anonymous said...

I meant the vote that didn't count being MO, NOT CO or MN. Please don't jump on me, it was an honest mistake!

AZ

Teemu said...

Yeah PPP didn't under poll Santorum in MO, MN or CO but rather failed in polling totally for understandable reasons, CO and MN turnouts relative to population were 3-5 times lower than Iowa, which made it impossible to poll, and MO turnout was only 40 percent of 2008, it is hard to poll abnormal low turnout beauty contest.

There is no excuse to get Michigan primary poll this badly wrong. PPP seems to think Michigan electorate has higher proportion of "very conservative" this year than South Carolina.

Right Wingnut said...

Teemu, perhaps their turnout model is predicting a low turnout in Michigan as well. That's what Nate Silver thinks. According to silver, more conservative voters make up a disproportionate percentage of the electorate when the turnout is low. I'm not saying they're correct...just sharing what I read today.

Right Wingnut said...

48% of the respondents are Evangelical in a state where only 27% of the population is Evangelical.

Two questions....

1. Is there a source that backs up the above statement?

2. If the above statement is factual, does that apply to the entire population of Michigan, or does it exclude Democrats?

Teemu said...

That is probably just total population, but 48% is too high for Republican primary considering 2008 exit polls.

2008 Michigan Republican Primary exit polls had:

Born-Again or Evangelical Christian? Yes(39%) No(61%)

White Brn-Again Prot(33%)
All Others(67%)

Anonymous said...

People need to look into the backgroup of Santorum and see how corrupt he was when he was in the Senate.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8q7l70tmxWg&context=C3fcdc47ADOEgsToPDskJu21-gQGvizlEOJEPRfRj3

Ohio JOE said...

"Some of us were born at night, but not last night." Haha, I was born early in the morning? In any event, who cares which poll is correct. Mr. Santorum is doing well in a Romney state.

Ohio JOE said...

BTW AZ, you do make a good point that in theory, Michigan should be easier to poll than some of the other states.

craigs said...

Perhaps this says it all about PPP in Michigan......PPP phone sampled by Area Code. They sampled exactly 12 people in AC 313, DETROIT. Romney carried over 45 % of the metro Detroit vote in the 2008 primary. These 12 voters split ......5 for Santorum, 4 for Romney, 1 undecided and 2 for Gingrich and Paul. Headlines? Santorum leads Romney by double digits .....in CD with 100,000 votes.
The absurdity of this poll is almost immeasurable

Anonymous said...

This is such a late comment maybe nobody will see it. Anne Coulter pointed out that Romney opposed the auto bailout in Michigan, which will probably cost him votes. I see he's just published an op-ed which comes down hard on the Obama administration for the bailouts. Probably won't increase his popularity in Michigan, but should remind people that Mitt NEVER SUPPORTED THE AUTO BAILOUTS!

I understand that Michigan is a proportionally divided state, while Arizona is winner takes all. If that's true, Mitt will want to win Arizona, since it is only one less delegate than MI.

AZ