Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Quinnipiac Poll: Romney positioned to win VIRGINA BIG and is virtually tied with Obama there

GOP Nomination: (Note: Only Romney & Paul qualified for the ballot)

Mitt Romney 68%
Ron Paul 19%

Suppose Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum were also on the ballot. If the Republican primary for President were being held today, would you vote for: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, or Newt Gingrich?

Mitt Romney 37%
Newt Gingrich 27%
Rick Santorum 18%
Ron Paul 12% 


Barack Obama 47%
Mitt Romney 43% (-4) 

Barack Obama 47%
Ron Paul 40% (-7) 

Barack Obama 49%
Rick Santorum 41% (-8) 

Barack Obama 51%
Newt Gingrich 37% (-14)
Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,544 registered voters between February 1-6 with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Republican primary includes 546 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.
The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.


Anonymous said...

Any candidate who gets 50% of the vote +1 vote, gets all the delegates.

Terrye said...

I thought Gingrich was not on the ballot in Va.

I hope Romney wins this..I also heard that Santorum has no delegates in Tenn. Apparently they have 41 delegates that go with the primary win and 14 that can be pledged..none are pledged to Santorum. It is a very complicated system.

Sharlene, Mom, Grammy said...

Wow. So does that mean Romney gets all the delegates if he does indeed get 68%?

Bob said...

49 Delegates.

It is my understanding also that if Romney gets 50% + 1 vote, it's winner take all. Anything less, is proportional.

With only Romney&Paul on the ballot, i'd say it's a done deal.

Dave said...

Romney will get all the delegates in Virginia, which would never go for Ron Paul, and they are the only 2 guys on the ballot.

The Tennessee situation is that Gingrich didn't file enough delegates, which limits his potential count. Romney was close there in 2008. It's not a lock for the ABRs.

Right Wingnut said...

I'm not sure how successful it will be, but there will be an effort to encourage Santorum supporters, Gingrich supporters and ABR voters to vote for Ron Paul. I've seen it discussed on other sites, and have actually planted the seed myself on more than one occasion.

Kelly said...

My in-laws are retired and living in Virginia.

My father-in-law who is undecided at this point told me that with only Romney and Paul on the ballot, he will be forced to cast a non-Paul vote. Another words, he's voting for Romney. He told me there is no way he would want Paul to somehow win the state.

newark hawk said...

How can anyone in his or her right mind even consider voting for a presidential candidate who is so disorganized and incompetent that he can't even get his name on the Virginia ballot?!?

As H.L. Mencken once said, "nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

Anonymous said...

This might explain the close polling differences between Obama & Romney (-4).

"Obama and Romney exhibit striking similarities"

""Finally, both men reflect a certain ideological inscrutability, despite years in the public eye.

“To this day, he remains an enigmatic presence to people outside his closest circle, a puzzle whose pieces don’t neatly fit,” Kranish and Helman write of Romney. “Many see in him what they want to see: a centrist or a conservative, an economic wizard or a rapacious capitalist, an adaptable leader or a calculating politician who will do anything to get elected.”

For Obama, that essential mysteriousness — Is he a liberal? A moderate? — has been more of a plus, inspiring voters to pour their hopes into an undefined vessel. He is a self-proclaimed Rorschach test for voters to interpret at will.

The Obama-Romney comparison is admittedly imperfect. Obama’s is a graceful aloofness; he comes off as cool but not needy. Romney is awkward in his aloofness; he tries too hard to connect. The difference between the two candidates is the difference between crooning Al Green and reciting obscure verses of “America the Beautiful.” "

Terrye said...

Lionhead...I don't think Romney is awkward..he is a nice man, he is gracious and kind to people and unlike Santorum he never comes across as weird.

And I find the comparisons to Obama to be tedious and absurd.

newark hawk said...

@ Lionhead

I wouldn't put too much stock in those close Obama-Romney polls if I were you.

At this point in the 1980 presidential election cycle, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter by over 20 points. Reagan went on to defeat Carter by 10 points.

Romney will receive a significant boost in his polling numbers if/when he wins the GOP nomination.

Romney will receive another significant boost in his polling numbers when he selects his running mate(Bob McDonnell, IMHO).

Obama, because he is already the presumptive nominee of his party, with a presumptive running mate in Joe Biden, will not receive significant polling boosts from these upcoming events.

Romney is far better positioned to defeat an incumbent President than any GOP challenger in modern times.

Anonymous said...

@Terrye, You're entitled to your opinion as am I, but the comparisons are quite clear to objective people. Standby, as I'll be posting more of these heads up comparisons for the two Progressive candidates, O-Mitt & O-bama. Two peas in a pod.

newark hawk said...

@ Lionhead

Romney was arguably the most conservative governor in the history of Massachusetts. Obama is arguably the most liberal president in the history of America.

"Two peas in a pod"?!?

I don't think so.

Anonymous said...

RW-You think like my neighbor, a liberal Democrat who is constantly trying to screw with the Republican primary process by creating schemes like voting for the weaker candidate to ensure a Democratic victory:)Do you live near Lake Minnetonka:)

I am convinced that the ABR movement is being coordinated by the Obama campaign. It doesn't make any sense to me why there is so much hate directed towards just one candidate.