Thursday, January 5, 2012

Question/Debate of the Day: Does a NH Win for Romney Seal the Deal?


Karl Rove has an article in today's Wall Street Journal laying out the case why Mitt Romney, should he emerge 2-0 after the New Hampshire Primary, would be a prohibitive favorite for the GOP Nomination:
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Not long ago few thought Mitt Romney could win both the very conservative Iowa caucuses and then the quirky, slightly contrarian New Hampshire primary. If he did, most assumed he would have a lock on the Republican nomination. For understandable reasons: No other GOP presidential candidate in an open race has achieved back-to-back victories in these first two contests.
By this time next week, we'll know if Mr. Romney is 2-0. If so, he becomes the prohibitive favorite.
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So will a Romney win in New Hampshire, especially after a duo of debates this weekend which are shaping up to be as civil as a union dock strike, essentially seal the deal?

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

If the tenacity of this group of candidates continues past New Hampshire I would say this will end up being as unpredictable of an election as they come. With so many players still in the field at this point and if NH doesn't whittle the field down - I would say that the back-to-back wins will be spun to be less important than it would have been during any other previous race. Especially if S. Carolina produces a different result from IA and NH. However, with all of that said I doubt that any of the candidates besides Romney has the funding to help them win big on Super Tuesday.

If I were a betting man I'd say that Romney won't have this "locked up" until Super Tuesday. I predict that Huntsman is the only candidate to drop out after NH, then Perry withdraws after S. Carolina followed by Gingrich pulling out after Super Tuesday. Leaving Paul, Santorum and Romney through June with Romney coming out on top.

-Phil

Anonymous said...

No, it still will be a fight ahead, but Romney should still pull out a nomination win

Doug NYC GOP said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Massachusetts Conservative said...

If Romney wins by 20% or more in NH, it's all over.

Romney would win SC, if not because of his own buzz, at least because no RomNot had beaten him yet.

Plus Nikki Haley, John McCain, Chris Christie, and probably Lindsey Graham will be campaigning for Mitt in SC.

Even if Mitt loses SC, he wins Florida because of money, surrogates, structure, snowbirds.

Doug NYC GOP said...

January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Romney Win

January 10, 2012 – New Hampshire (primary)Romney Heavy Favorite

January 21, 2012 – South Carolina (primary) Mixed Bag – Decent 3rd by Romney or better will be fine.

January 31, 2012 – Florida (primary) With Newt’s national collapse in free fall, Fla should reflect this as well. Romney Favored

February 4, 2012 – Nevada (caucus) Romney Heavy Fav – see Fla. comment, same scenario.

February 4–11, 2012 – Maine (caucus) Romney Fav.

February 7, 2012:

Colorado (caucus) Romney Fav.
Minnesota (caucus)Romney Fav.
Missouri (primary) – Romney Fav/Santorum Maybe if still in.

February 28, 2012:

Arizona (primary) Romney Fav (w/ McCain endorsement a bonus)
Michigan (primary) Romney Heavy Fav

March 3, 2012 – Washington (caucus)Romney Fav

So Does Super Tuesday even matter?

It’s a guantlet the other have to run now, with limited funds/organization.

The Week after Florida offers nothing but good news for Romney as the MITT_MENTUM storyline dominates as these victories pile up.

Can’t see Santorum piling up a lot of support beyond SC.

Alan said...

Romney will win every thing west of the Mississippi, except for Texas if Perry is still in. Romney essentially has a stranglehold on the nomination and the only way he can lose is to commit a major boo-boo.

Anonymous said...

No Doug. Nothing will seal the deal! At least with people like Rush, Kristol, FOX, the religious right, etc.

Romney could win all of the delegates, and some people will still spin it as Romney can't seal the deal. LOL

-Martha

PS. For the sane among us, if Romney wins NH, he becomes formidable, as Rove said, and hardly anything could stop him--IMO. I believe he's going to surprise in SC, too.

marK said...

Mitt is supposed to win New Hampshire. So a win there, even by 50 points, is not going to have the impact of him winning Iowa, a state he wasn't suppose to win.

Now if he wins South Carolina; that makes it game, set and match. Sure, you are going to get the die-hards that want to battle it right to the convention. But realistically, if Mitt sweeps the first three contests, I just don't see how anything barring a really, really bad major event will keep him from being our nominee.

Anonymous said...

Romney will win the nomination and they will say he bought it

Machtyn said...

Romney may win TX even with Perry in it.

Do I think it's over after NH, even with a big win? No. I do think it is over after Super Tuesday if he doesn't already win SC and FL.

South Carolina will be difficult, but with Nikki Haley and hopefully a DeMint endorsement, he should do very well.

If I understand correctly, Romney spent $4M in Iowa. He has a bank of $50M. He should be able to run on 10 states easily.

Ohio JOE said...

Wow, you said if best MarK. It is an expectations game. Neither Mr. Romney nor Mr. Santorum was suppose to get close to 25%, so they both gain momentum from Iowa. Unless, Mr. Romney does poorly in what is essentially his home state, New Hampshire is not all that relivant this time around. What might be interesting in New Hamphire is how everybody else places because that might help determin who will be the one(s) to challange Mr. Romney, but Iowa already set the tone.

Mr. Romney is the front-runner now and in a stronger position that he was both one week ago and two weeks ago. However, let's just say that this race might not be over soon. It depends on where the voters from the bottom candidates shift to.

Anonymous said...

YES

Terrye said...

I don't think Santorum will be able to pull off anything like Iowa again..so yes, I think Romney will get the nomination...the cry babies will go on crying.

Anonymous said...

This will go on to at least April. April is the earliest any candidate can get the required delegates numbers to win.

Anonymous said...

I predicted Santorum to win Iowa and I will predict that someone other than Romney will win SC. There simply has to be a stand take place somewhere that will present a clear choice to the voters. Luckily for us, Mitt is most certainly the clear choice in this election and I'll take Perry, Gingrich, Santorum or Paul head to head any day of the weak.

Mitt's favorability numbers today in the Gallup poll give me a lot of optimism about Mitt. The fact is, Mitt is NOT a bad guy and his intentions are good. Every job or task that Mitt has applied for, he succeeded at...

UnderGrad Edu. Finished top of his class

Higher edu. Went to the toughest college in the nation and once again, finished top of his class.

First Job out of College...Obviously a financial success because he TURNED AROUND FAR MORE COMPANIES THAN NOT.

First Executive Role--Financially successful due to helping start up companies that became national chains and staples in the marketplace.

Second Executive Role--Took no money, (so not a personal financial success) but turned around Bain and made it a leader once again in their field.

First non profit Executive Experience---Took no money (no personal financial gain) and produced the unthinkable in the Olympics and turned around the games that were failing in EVERY major task of running the games (which ultimately AMERICA benefitted from)..he did EXACTLY what he was hired to do.

First Executive Government experience--Took no money (no personal financial gain). The election was about getting their fiscal house in order and he fulfilled every promise to get the Mass. Govt in the black (improved their credit rating while he was at it). And when the people of Mass. demanded action on healthcare, he fought against any public option and adopted most of the Heritage Foundations solutions for getting everyone insured. (Had Obama not passed healthcare, this would not be an anvil around his neck)...but I understand that people view this as a failure.

Litterally, when the buck stops at his desk, he fulfills his promises and succeeds at solving the major problem and task at hand.

Some may call being a Senator as being a leader...I think that only applys if you truly make a name for yourself...I would definitely say that Michelle has shown more "leadership qualities" than Santorum, but go figure.

Btw...I like Santorum a lot...there's nothing to dislike the guy over, but there's reallly not a lot of successes to get excited about either.

Gordon

p.s. sorry for the long post

Anonymous said...

I would not rule Texas out for a Romney win. I have plenty of family in Texas, and their view of Perry's performance in Texas is quite different than the Fox News pundit's opinion on Perry's tenure as governor.

A few months back I read that Ron Paul who is also from Texas,has a substantial following in the Lone star state. Paul along with a Gingrich could split the southern vote and seal a Romney victory in Texas.

Ohio JOE said...

"the cry babies will go on crying." Yes, like your friend Thunder from race.