Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Mr. Romney looks ready for a big win in Florida, but slips a bit nationally

A week ago, it looked like Mr. Gingrich was trending towards victory in Florida, now it looks like a double digit win for Mr. Romney. In this up and down race nationally, Mr. Gingrich stays rather stable just slipping under the 34% mark while Mr. Romney slips a few point nationally to remain just over the 30% mark. Mr. Santorum almost gains 2 points to sit at 17.3% and Dr. Paul gains over a point to sit at 14.2%. Mr. Gingrich is also rather steady in the delegate count with an 857 elected delegate projection and Mr. Romney slips to 810. Mr. Santorum jumps over the 200 mark at 215 and Dr. Paul climbs slightly to 180. 60 delegates remain uncommitted or other. Note yesterday’s poll number are not including in this analysis due to limited time on my part.

While the last few days of polling show Mr. Romney catching up to Mr. Gingrich nationally, again; it is a bit puzzling why Mr. Gingrich leads at all. After all, Mr. Romney won both Florida debates unlike the South Carolina debates. So it short, at least as of yet, the Florida debates did not move national numbers as much and as fast as the South Carolina debates. However, that could change in the days to come. While the main contest (or dog fight to be a bit more blunt) in between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich, ever since Christmas, there has been a minor dog fight below the radar between Mr. Santorum and Dr. Paul. Last week, radio pundit started to mention this contest below the radar and both non-charismatic candidates were able to at least throw some punches. While it does not matter who comes in third place, the trick for both Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich is to either snag Santorum/Paul voters or make the other guy lose a bit of support to the other guy. If the national contest does stay close, it will be interesting and important as to how the Santorum/Paul voters affect the overall contest eventually. No doubt Mr. Romney’s win today will give him some momentum, but how much and how long will it last? I have to agree with Ras this contest will not be over soon, although, Mr. Romney will regain the advantage after tonight.

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16 comments:

Terrye said...

I don't think I have even seen any recent national polls..I think we will have a better idea about that in a few days.

Anonymous said...

Yeah National Polls dont matter at this point, and after Romney wins big in FL, his national numbers will go up. Remember after winning NH, he also retook the lead in the national poll. Gingrich won SC and he took the lead back. Get the pattern?

Teemu said...

The fist FL debate wasn't as crushing as Thursday debate. Most national polls were taken before Thursday debate. Only poll partially taken after it, Gallup tracking poll still has 2 days of pre-Thursday debate data.

By the way how do you calculate the delegates?

Jerald said...

OhioJoe

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a movement of support from Gingrich to Santorum as voters who don't like Romney start coming to their senses...

Anonymous said...

OJ,

Will you please take the time to read the Article 6 blog post about the Sarah Palin Facebook page? And then maybe you would check out her facebook page yourself and see what you think. I really like the Article 6 guys and have found them very reasonable, so I don't think they have jumped to conclusions here. I would like to know what you think about this.

AZ

Lionhead said...

Ohio Joe, as of tomorrow it will be impossible for any candidate to enter the remaining primaries & win the nomination:

http://politics.salon.com/2012/01/30/sorry_republicans_its_too_late_for_new_presidential_candidates/

So effectively, the current candidates are the only choices. Yesterday, on the WFLA radio poll, Santorum was tied with Mitt for first place, followed by Newt, then Paul.

Mitt supporters will rejoice, but the level of alienation for the rest of the conservatives has been swept aside. Swept aside until the general election when Romney finds his support vaporized.

I will place my vote for Santorum, change my registration to Independent & I will re-iterate, Romney will never receive my vote under any circumstances. So be it.

Lionhead said...

http://politics.salon.com/2012/01/30/sorry_republicans_its_too_late_for_new_presidential_candidates/

Lionhead said...

http://tinyurl.com/6vmx4qj

Robb F said...

I don't see how Gingrich has more delegates at this point than Romney. Mitt will sweep the upper nE, the upper Midwest and the west. He will win FL and with momentum could easily split the south. I think the only states Gingrich can count on looking forward are the Huckabee states from 08. The rest of the southern states went for McCain after he won Florida. Even though McCain was viewed as the moderate. Your numbers are way out of whack.

Anonymous said...

AZ-you're finally discovering what I've know for quite some time. Dan and Martha are correct. Palin is the dog whistle for the bigots in the party. I will be joining Dan in leaving the party after the election. Unlike Dan, I don't think there is a chance that Mitt loses to Obama, but I'm still gone.

Anonymous said...

If it weren't for the bigots in the party, Mitt would be up by 25-30 points nationally. I suspect nearly half of all Republicans are anti-Mormon.

Machtyn said...

Anon at 1:01: I suspect that is grossly incorrect. Yes, there is bigotry in the Republican Party. A not-so recent poll (but the most recent), showed that Democrats are more bigoted towards the LDS.

Romney is not playing the bigot card, why should we? Is it out there? Yes. Should we address it? Sure. Do we need to throw accusations on everyone who we disagree with? Absolutely not.

Anonymous said...

Wow! I'm glad I'm not the only one who sees the rampant bigotry in the party. Its a lot more prevalent than people think. It certainly cost Mitt the win in South Carolina and Iowa. I'm thinking of bailing on the party as well.

We'lll all have the last laugh when the "scary" Mormon takes the oath of office a year from now. What will the bigots say then! HaHaHa.

Anonymous said...

Interesting conversation here. I fully expect Palin, Rush, Levin, etc, etc. to work behind the scenes to prevent the Mormon from beating Obama. Take it to the bank.

I'm glad I finally found a place where this can be discussed without being slammed.

Anonymous said...

Machtyn, as usual I agree with you. I wasn't trying to infer that everyone that disagrees with Mitt is a bigot. I will never agree to that. I do lean more towards John Schroeder's (Article VI) concern that the hatred that evangelicals have carried toward Mormons for so many years means that they are highly suspicious of Mormons. That means that Mitt can answer the same questions over and over correctly, live a good life, and still be under suspicion that "something must be wrong, even though I can't find anything." That isn't bigotry, but it is almost more difficult to overcome in an election. So far, Mitt is handling it well, as usual. I'm glad he's not out there whining like Newt and blaming his problems on somebody else!

When Mitt does poorly in a debate, he goes and hires a new debate coach, he doesn't whine that the audience cheered or didn't cheer, or that they liked his opponents better. I am so glad to see someone who rolls with the punches and works harder to get what he wants!

AZ

Anonymous said...

Well said Anon 2:37

Mittisit