Sunday, December 4, 2011

Mr. Gingrich cracks the 30% mark as we enter December.

Yes, my weekly post is a few days early, but I thought I look at the political landscape just before it is about to change. There have not been too many polls over the past week and a half, but all the polls that have been released do suggest that Mr. Gingrich has either smashed 30% or come very close to it. Ras was particular good for Mr. Gingrich, even if this polis a few points away from reality, it suggests that the undecideds might be breaking more towards Mr. Gingrich. The few state polls that were released over the past few days also show a trend towards Mr. Gingrich. Nationally, Mr. Gingrich now sits at 31.2%. With the very brief possible exception of Mr. Perry, Mr. Gingrich is the first person to crack the 30% mark nationally in well over a year.

Mr. Romney has slipped about one and a half points nationally over the past few days to sit at Twenty one and a half per cent. Mr. Cain has slipped over 2% to fall slightly under the 15% mark. Dr. Paul has a decent week and he now sits at 8.3%. Polls over the past few days suggest that Mr. Perry has fallen to just over a point to sit at 6.5%. Mrs. Bachmann holds steady at Five and a half per cent. Mr. Huntsman and Mr. Santorum both had a decent few days and thus both sit at Three and a Third per cent.

Outside the Northeast, it appears that Michigan, Utah and Virginia are the only state where Mr. Romney leads, Mr. Gingrich leads elsewhere and this helps him add over 200 delegates in the past few days or so to sit at 1159. It has been over a year since anybody smashed the 1000 mark (although Mr. Perry came close.) Mr. Romney lost well over 100 delegates over the past few days to sit at 466. He was hurt particularly in the South and West in terms of delegates over the past few days. Mr. Cain lost almost 100 delegates in the past few days and now sits at 252 as he essentially exits the race. The South and Midwest help Mr. Perry keep close to the 100 mark at 94. Dr. Paul climbs a bit to 88. Mrs. Bachman has slipped a bit in the delegate count to 37. Nobody else has quite crossed the 25 delegate mark

So recent trends show that at this moment in time, Mr. Gingrich would easily win the nomination. Just over a month ago, he was in 5th place before he started his steady climbs into double digits and beyond. Most of his support of course came from Mr. Cain and the SBRers, Somebody Besides Mr. Romney. This seems ironic for two reasons. First, many people started to shy away from Mr. Cain in part because some characters came out of the woodwork and made some sexual allegation. With Mr. Gingrich, the sexual allegations are actually true, albeit he apologized. Prior to Mr. Gingrich, one could at least make a strong argument that the leading non-Romney candidate was at least as Conservative as Mr. Romney. Let’s just say it is much more difficult to make that argument. In fact, several months ago, most people were Gingrichite because Mr. Romney was not moderate enough for them. He was not Pro-TARP enough, he was not Pro-Queen Dede enough. Mr. Gingrich’ past sexual antics did not bother Gingrichite a bit and they of course were not impressed with the fact that Mr. Romney among others appeared to have a good family life.

As Mr. Gingrich pretends to be Conservative, does well in debates, runs a well disciplined campaign and is the only non-Romneyite standing, Conservatives of various stripes start to forgive Mr. Gingrich for his past shenanigans and become honorary Gingrichites. While it seems Mr. Gingrich has a plurality of Tea Partiers and SoCons behind him (even enough to give him the nomination,) the majority of Conservatives still support SOG (Somebody Other than Gingrich.) Conservatives are not the only ones flocking to Mr. Gingrich; the past few weeks have seem a plurality (not a majority) of moderates move to him. Since Moderates and Independent leaning Republican do not have high moral standards, they are not really bothered by his Sexual escapades.

4 years ago, Mr. Romney attracted White Anglo-Saxon Suburbanites, but Ethnic voters and Hispanics went to Mr. McCain. To Mr. Romney’s credit, he has worked at getting Hispanics and Ethnic voters on his side. To a degree his has been successful. However, allowing himself to be dragged into an immigration contest with Mr. Gingrich probably hurt him with Hispanics and did not help with Whites. Mr. Romney’s recent immigration talk was most likely a miscalculation. He probably thought it was a good way to pander to White Conservatives in the Heartland. However, these Whites are not as anti-immigrant Mr. Romney’s campaign thought. Most could not care less about immigration; they are interested in promoting capitalism, not getting mixed up with contest between Whites and Hispanics. We in the heartland probably eat as many burritos and tacos as the city slickers. We probably even know as much Spanish as they do as well. So it short, it does not appear that this anti-immigration pandering helped Mr. Romney. He’ll have to use other tactics to gain Conservative voters.

So the Romneyites have finally gotten what they wished for; a somewhat clean two way contest between their camp leader and Mr. Gingrich. However, they are surprised how things are turning out and I too am surprised that we have what we have. With Mr. Huckabee, Mr. Trump, Mrs. Palin, Mr. Pawlenty and others out of the way, Mr. Romney simply moves from the 15 to 20% range to the 20 to 25% range. He has not seen the 30% mark for a year and a half and it does not look like it will happen this calendar year. Many of us scratch our head and wonder how people can vote for a guy like Mr. Gingrich, but the alternative is to vote for one who has brought us mandates. So I imagine at least some people ask themselves, whether they should vote for somebody with personal problems or policy problems. Many Romneyites have argued, that mandates do not hurt their candidate because that old news and he dealt with the issue. Well the Gingrichites can simply say that same thing with regards to his past sexual antics. To a degree, it is understandable that some would chose Mr. Gingrich, they have had enough with all the antics of the Romney camp and they will support whoever it take to beat him. The revelation that Mr. Gingrich got money from Fannie Mae causes many of us to just say ‘hoe hum twiddle dum’ since Mr. Romney also has friends in the banking industry. Of course the fact that Mr. Gingrich has run a more disciplined campaign helps him. Mr. Romney cannot afford too many more interviews like he had earlier this week.

It is certainly possible for Mr. Romney to win; Mr. Gingrich also has a ceiling (though it may not have been reached yet.) While some Conservative have completely tuned out to Mr. Romney, he needs to explain that he is the most Conservative of the two major candidates in order to crack improve his standing. This is a delicate task because if he goes on the attack, it will look like more of the same. The big question now is what happens to Cain voters, no doubt candidates like Mr. Santorum and Dr. Paul will get a little bit of that support, but it is quite doubtful that it will be enough. One of my friends told me this morning that since Cain is out “I’d like to vote for somebody like Bachmann or Santorum, but Gingrich is the only Conservative with a chance.” The fact that Mr. Gingrich is able to make people think that he is at least a quasi-Conservative illustrates Mr. Romney’s challenge. It will take hard work to bring Cainites to the Romney camp. Mr. Gingrich for now has been able to lead the Somebody Besides Romney coalition. We shall if Mr. Romney can lead a Somebody Other than Gingrich coalition or if the anti-Gingrich forces remain divided.

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Bill589 said...

If some want to call Mitt a ‘flip-flopper’, to be honest and consistent, they would have to call Newt a mega-flip-flopper on steroids. Newt even flip-flops on wives and girlfriends.

I’m not the biggest fan of Mitt, but Newt is not even in the same league.

craigs said...

Romney has " Flipped " or changed his position a couple of times. The biggest criticism " Conservatives " seem to have this year is that Mitt refuses to Flip, as they have , on the Mass health Care program they mostly supported in 2008.
A true Flip Flop is a Gingrich aphorism that not only changes a position....but changes back to the original position or a second different position, in recent memory and than explains it away as a " Fundamental"message


Anonymous said...


Newt was for NATIONAL mandates only a few short months ago. You say Romney brought us mandates. But he didn't. He brought Mass. mandates. You can say that Newt had just as much a hand in bringing us mandates as Romney did, because he was in on the idea from the beginning and has touted them for years.

Anyway, it's not policy problems vs. personal problems. Newt has MORE policy problems than Romney--with the added personal problems!

It's all just as crazy as heck, but it will be sorted out here pretty quickly. I think we'll see Newt's numbers come down within a week to 10 days. Well before Christmas. Newt got lucky, but probably not lucky enough.


Terrye said...

I know that the Republican party has been called the stupid, but not this stupid, surely.

BTW, Ohio Joe, it seems like it was just yesterday that you were telling us about Cain's advance.

Terrye said...

As for Romney's interview this week...come on...meanwhile we have Gingrich running around showing his ass talking about how he is the nominee blah blah can always count on Gingrich to say something stupid.

Terrye said...

As for mandates, Gingrich has been flapping his gums about the need for national mandates to deal with free riders, as he himself called them..since the 90s. He wanted everyone to either get insurance or sign a bond.

One of the reasons that Gingrich is in the running now is that most people have forgotten about his history, but that won't last..

The sad thing is that there is still so misinformation out there about Romney..a lot of that has to do with the fact that conservative media is every bit as biased as the mainstream media they are always complaining about.

Terrye said...

BTW, I meant to mention..Gallup came out with a poll yesterday that did not put Gingrich anywhere near 30...he is about 9 points under that.

Anonymous said...

According to one cain adviser, cain is most likely to endorse newt, newt will win iowa especially if he gets cains endorsement

Anonymous said...

Cain endorse Newt? Well of course. 2 Peas in a pod when it comes to disrespecting and lying about women.


Anonymous said...

You better hope he wins Iowa, because if he doesn't his campaign will be pretty much over.

If he fails in Iowa (and he will), his fundraising will dry up and he will be unable to viably compete in SC and FL.

- Andrew Ryan

Ohio JOE said...

"it seems like it was just yesterday that you were telling us about Cain's advance." Yup, things have moved faster than we can keep up.

Terrye said...

Ohio Joe:

They sure do. Now Cain will probably endorse Newt..maybe Newt offered to hook him up with some women or something.

I can hear the rallying cry for the ABR crowd now: Womanizers and Hypocrites Unite! It is so inspiring.

Anonymous said...

Hey terrye! Birds of a feather! Maybe Newt and Cain can be each other's wing men when they go cruising for chicks!

Anonymous said...

I am not a big fan of Herman Cain. That being said, I don't think we should equate what Cain has been going through with Newt's woman problems. We KNOW Newt is guilty as charged. What exactly has gone on with Cain is much more nebulous. The Restaurant Association settling sexual harassment lawsuits does not equal guilt. Businesses settle out of court frequently to save money. Lawsuits are messy and expensive, and they usually aren't about guilt or innocence as they are about who has the most money and the best lawyers. That, in itself, is a sad statement about our current society. Let's leave Herman in peace at least until/if we know more.


GetReal said...

I agree with AS, and also want to thank OJ for another well done (but discouraging) analysis. I'd like to point out that Romney is leading in the recent California poll, but it doesn't really change the fact that he will have to work even harder to have a realistic hope of earning the nomination. I sure hope he can pull this off.

GetReal said...

I meant AZ.

Ohio JOE said...

Good point Get Real, Mr. Romney was a few points ahead in the latest CA poll. However, Mr. Gingrich has increased his national standing since the time of that poll so various factors need to be considered. At the time of that analysis, I put Mr. Gingrich' lead over Mr. Romney at less than 2 and a half per cent. There are a few other states where Mr. Romney is very close, but for now, Mr. Gingrich leads in most states.

Right Wingnut said...

GR, on that California poll....

1. It was conducted from Nov 15-27, so the data is somewhat dated.

2. Cain garnered 9% in the poll. The majority of those will go to Cain.

3. Romney was only ahead by 3.

Newt is most likely leading in Calicornia right now.

Right Wingnut said...

I meant the majority of Cain support will go to Newt.