Wednesday, December 28, 2011

CNN/Time/ORC Poll: Romney leading by 3 in IOWA

H/T Teemu

GOP Nomination:


Mitt Romney 25%
Ron Paul 22%
Rick Santorum 16%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Rick Perry 11%
Michele Bachmann 9%
Jon Huntsman 1%
No opinion 2%

Best Chance of beating Obama:

Mitt Romney 41%
Newt Gingrich 17%
Ron Paul 14%
Rick Perry 8%
Michele Bachmann 4%
Rivk Santorum 4%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 8%
All interviews conducted by telephone between December 22-27 among 452 likely Republican caucus participants in Iowa. The MOE is +/-4.5%.
The crosstabs can be viewed HERE.

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5 comments:

Machtyn said...

I like question 3. Between Bachmann, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, and Romney, would you consider supporting.

Romney has 43% that would consider supporting, second lowest of the group. Paul is lowest at 36%. Perry wins at 64%. Not so great for Romney by itself.

Would not consider supporting: Romney is second lowest here, too, at 31%. Perry is lowest at 25% and Paul is highest at 41%.

Already supporting, Romney = 25%, Paul = 22%, Perry = 11%.

Taking the two questions together, Ron Paul's state does not look good. He is at a ceiling. Romney is about halfway and Perry has the ability to make up a lot of room.

Except... question 2 shows that over half have made up their mind. 54% definitely support their candidate while 43% may change their mind.

Ben said...

If Romney pulls off a win here and a big win in NH, it's all over.

Anonymous said...

wow! Im sorry I even doubted romney when the newt surged happened. Go Mitt!

marK said...

This is a nice result.

Unfortunately, many people are pointing out that CNN only polled Republicans in Iowa. The latest polls show that a large number of Independents and Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Paul.

So we have to take this result with a grain of salt, I'm afraid.

Too bad. :-(

Slick-Willy said...

Paul won't win & is not a concern. Iowa is now a race between Mitt & Santorum, who has a real chance of picking up Newt's fast-fleeing supporters and making a real play on Jan 3. Hopefully Mitt can still make it happen, but it's likely to be a close fight.