Tuesday, November 22, 2011

U of I's version of Intrade picks Mitt Romney by 70+%

If you want to know who will win the Iowa caucuses or the Republican nomination for president, you might want to forget the polls and start paying attention to the pools.

As of Monday, the Iowa Electronic Markets’ campaign pools had Mitt Romney as the favorite of 70 percent of the smart money to win the nomination, and he was the choice of 72 percent of investors to finish in the top two in the Iowa caucuses.

Since 1988, the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business has operated the Iowa Electronic Markets as a way to teach students and others how financial markets work by creating publicly traded futures markets on various events, including political races.


A study in 2008 found the U of I political markets since 1988 were about 74 percent accurate more than 100 days from the election, with accuracy increasing to a margin of error of 1.11 percent five days before the actual event.

Who will win the GOP Nomination: (as of Nov 21, 2011 9PM EST

Mitt Romney 71.1%

Newt Gingrich 16.2%
Rick Perry 4.8%
Ron Paul 2.1%
Herman Cain 1.1%
Michele Bachman 0.8%

The full story is HERE.

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larry said...

74% accuracy is pretty good.

Revolution 2012 said...

Iowa money on Romney to finish 1 or 2 there.

I can live with that.

hamaca said...

Newt Gongrich?

I love it. I'm sure someone could come up with a clever reference to The Gong Show--for those that remember that.

BOSMAN said...


I should have left it that way.