Monday, November 7, 2011

Ohio Update

In a few days, Ohioans will not vote for any President candidates, they will not vote for any Congressional candidates or any statewide candidates. Some of us will vote for a school board trustee and a City councilman. However, the election is much more important that that because of two referendum questions.

From the Spring of 2010 to the Summer of 2011, as an Ohio Freedom fighter I collected hundreds of signatures from fellow citizens. Along with several other volunteers, we needed to collect the signatures of over 1% of all voters. We did that. Another group added to our totals. So Issue 3 on the ballot would in short make health care mandates unconstitutional in the state of Ohio.

In fact, as of July 7, 2011, over 440,000 signatures collected by The Ohio Project volunteers on petitions for the Ohio Health Care Freedom Amendment were submitted yesterday, July 6, 2011, to the Ohio Secretary of State, Jon Husted. In addition, over 105,000 signatures collected by Ohioans for Healthcare Freedom were combined and also submitted bringing the total number of signatures submitted to 546,250.

While this effort was lead by grass roots Conservatives and Libertarians, it was a broad base coalition. People of many faiths and political persuasions; Tea Partier, Coffeeites, RINOs, Constitutionalists, mainstream Conservatives, Southern Dem, Independents, Establishment hacks and so forth. In fact, more Democrats than Republicans signed the petition in my county and a neighboring county.

Soon after Mr. Kasich became our governor, he signed Senate Bill 5 into Law. This law essentially makes public sector employees pay a portion of their own HC and pension (like the rest of us.) It also gives municipalities more bargaining power. It allows local governments to get rid of lazy useless public employees with seniority. Unions from across the country needed to get at least 6% of Ohio voters to sign a petition to get this question on the ballot. They had little trouble doing this and it is now Issue 2 on the ballot.

In off year elections, it is a little difficult to predict exactly how things turn out, but it appears that Issues 3 should pass easily. One public polls suggests that 70% of decided voters will support this issue. Who know what people will actually do in the polling both, but if Ohio is a true bell-weather state, the measure should not have a huge problem obtaining about 60% of the vote. To be sure, mandates are not the only problem with ObamaCare, but the mandate is the main part of the glue that keeps ObamaCare together. Further, the mandate is one major aspect of ObamaCare that anger both Ohioans and Americans in general. Some say that Federal law would supersede the Ohio Constitution. Well, we will see what the courts say, but such people do not understand the 10th amendment.

As for Issue 2, the two most recent polls showed that the Yes side (supporters of SB) had 36% and 40%. The regional data of the 36% poll was skewed, but the 40% poll at least passed the smell test. Internal polls show the contest make closer, but the bottom line is that the Yes side is struggling on Issue 2 where the Yes side is not struggling on Issue 3.

Many pundits find it ironic that Mr. Walker from a Blueish Purple state has had more trouble that Mr. Kasich from a Redish Purple state in fighting public unions. There are a variety of reasons for this. First, Public sector employees in Wisconsin are even more overpaid then their cousins in Ohio, so the Wisconsin tax-payers have even more reason to be angry in the first place. On top of this, while Ohio public employees protested and carried on a bit, they did not trash the State House into a total pig sty like their cousins in Wisconsin. Thus the Wisconsin union lost the PR battle unlike the Unions in Ohio. Another factor could be that the Ohio law is arguably more firm that the Wisconsin law.

Finally, the Issue 3 Yes side has been run by the grass roots while the Issue 2 Yes side has been run by the party hacks and they were caught with their pants down and did not know what they were up against. I am glad that we have a Right Wing Extremist in the Governors mansion, but most of the other state-wide office holders are no friends of the Conservative grass roots. These are the people that have bungled Issue 2, not Mr. Kasich.

In any event, I have been helping my county chairman by delivering pamphlets door to door and in parking lots to promote both issues and I am hoping for decent victories for both issues. The Yes side for both issues held a rally at a major insertion in my community last weekend despite the snow (so much for global warming.) Since unfortunately, I do not have an Ohio flag, I took the next best thing (an American flag) along to the rally with my children to the rally. While a few union hacks produced some F words, many of the passer-bys were quite supportive. Since Yes side lawn signs are getting stolen and damaged in the area, lawn signs are not a good predictor of what will happen. I am hoping that the state wide Television debate along with last minute advertising will help the Yes side on Issue 2.

Mr. Messe and Dr. Paul are promoting Issue 3 and I believe Mrs. Bachmann is supporting it as well. As for Issue 2 both Mrs. Palin and Mr. Romney (after clarifying his position) are promoting it. So the whole country is watching what happens tomorrow to be sure.

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Anonymous said...

My concern is that this could lead to Ohio going blue in 2012. Hey at least Romney has a good chance at winning Michigan and New Hampshire to make up for an Ohio loss.


Ohio JOE said...

If we lose Ohio, it ain't likely we win Michigan. MI is too Blue.

BOSMAN said...

Good luck on the votes OJ.

Anonymous said...

Agreed OHIO, however Romney holds a special place for Michigan voters. It his "home" state and his father was Governor there. So a Michigan pick-up is far more likely for Romney, even if he doesn't win Ohio. Although I agree it will be difficult, polls have shown Romney beating Obama by 4% -5%.

For any other candiate, winning Michigan will be impossible whether or not Ohio is won.


Anonymous said...

Does this law include refusing health care to freeloaders who could have purchased health insurance but didn't? Many libertarian policies can work, but only in situations where consequences are allowed to catch up with people who abuse the system. Otherwise, you are just guaranteeing the number of health care freeloaders in your state.